Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: Prices Up to $2,325; Will It Break the Trendline?

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Published: Jun 28, 2024, 06:08 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Gold prices fell, retracting some gains amid a stronger U.S. Dollar and Treasury yields.
Dollar gains were driven by rising Treasury yields and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance.
Market adjustments for U.S. inflation data further boosted the Dollar, dampening gold’s appeal.

Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: Prices Up to $2,325; Will It Break the Trendline?

Market Overview

Gold prices experienced a downturn on the final trading day of the week, retracting some of the 1% gains made from the prior day’s low, which was the weakest in two weeks.

The reversal was triggered as the U.S. Dollar gained momentum, climbing to near two-month highs, bolstered by rising U.S. Treasury yields and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve.

Additionally, market adjustments in anticipation of forthcoming U.S. inflation data further reinforced the Dollar, thereby dampening gold’s appeal as a commodity.

Economic Uncertainties Bolster Safe-Haven Demand

Despite the pullback, gold continues to find support due to its status as a safe haven amid various global uncertainties. Market participants are increasingly expecting the Federal Reserve to commence a rate-cut cycle in September, spurred by signs of easing inflation and slowing economic growth.

Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the enduring conflict between Russia and Ukraine further amplify gold’s allure.

Investors remain cautious, preferring to wait for further economic indicators, with significant attention focused on the impending release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

Mixed U.S. Economic Reports Influence Fed’s Rate Decisions

Recent U.S. economic reports have had a mixed impact on market expectations. While the real GDP growth for Q1 was revised up to a 1.4% annual pace, it still marks a considerable slowdown from the previous quarter.

Additionally, durable goods orders slightly improved, contrary to expectations, and initial jobless claims showed mixed signals with a slight decrease but an increase in the four-week moving average. Housing market data indicated a decline in pending home sales, reaching the lowest record since 2001.

These figures, combined with subdued retail sales and decreasing inflation pressures, suggest the Fed could reduce interest rates by September. However, remarks from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman caution against premature expectations of a rate cut due to ongoing inflation risks.

Moreover, the resurgence in U.S. Treasury yields continues to support the Dollar, influencing the trajectory of gold prices as investors await further economic cues from the U.S. PCE Price Index, a critical measure of inflation watched by the Federal Reserve.

Short-term Forecast

Gold prices are likely to remain volatile, with key support at $2315.63 and resistance at $2328.55. Market reactions to upcoming U.S. inflation data will be crucial.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold – Chart

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2326.26, down 0.29%. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is at $2319.15. Key resistance levels are at $2328.55, $2337.03, and $2345.35, while immediate support is at $2315.63, followed by $2310.45 and $2303.05. The 50-day EMA stands at $2323.61, and the 200-day EMA is at $2329.53.

A 50 EMA crossover suggests potential bullish momentum, but the downward trendline could pose resistance at $2328.55. The outlook remains bullish above $2320, yet a break below this level could trigger a sharp selling trend.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.