Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: Soars to $2365 on Rate Cut Hopes; More Upside?

By:

Arslan Ali

Published: Jun 6, 2024, 06:47 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Gold Hits Two-Week High at $2365, Driven by Global Rate Cut Expectations.
ADP Job Data Miss and ISM Services PMI Beat Bolster Safe-Haven Demand for Gold.
ECB and BoC Rate Cuts Anticipated, Strengthening Gold's Position Amidst Economic Uncertainty.

In this article:

Gold

-0.68%

Market Overview

The Gold price (XAU/USD) has continued its upward trajectory for the second consecutive day, reaching a two-week high around the $2365 mark in early European trading on Thursday. This bullish momentum is supported by expectations that major central banks will reduce interest rates to stimulate economic growth.

Notably, the Bank of Canada (BoC) lowered its benchmark rate for the first time in four years on Wednesday, highlighting concerns over slowing economic growth. Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to cut interest rates later today, for the first time since March 2016.

US Economic Slowdown and Geopolitical Tensions Boost Gold

Market sentiments are also influenced by the heightened probability of an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed), amid signs of a US economic slowdown. This expectation keeps US Treasury bond yields low, which in turn limits support for the US Dollar (USD).

Moreover, ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to support the safe-haven demand for gold. Despite these factors, the upside for XAU/USD remains constrained as traders await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due on Friday.

Data Releases and Treasury Yields Influence Gold Prices

The latest US macroeconomic data continues to suggest an increased likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts, placing downward pressure on US Treasury bond yields, which in turn benefits non-yielding gold.

Notably, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for May reported a gain of 152K jobs, falling short of the expected 173K and the previous month’s revised 188K. This underperformance hints at a cooling labor market.

Moreover, the ISM Services PMI for May rose to 53.8, surpassing the anticipated 51.0 and marking a significant recovery from the prior month’s 49.4, indicating a potential easing in inflationary pressures.

The Final Services PMI held steady at 54.8, aligning with expectations and confirming a stable expansion in service sector activity.

Investors remain focused on upcoming US employment updates, including the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the crucial Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report set for release on Friday.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold (XAU/USD) is expected to maintain its bullish trend, driven by global central bank moves to cut interest rates amidst economic slowdown concerns. With key resistance at $2373.94, a breakout could propel prices higher.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold – Chart

Gold is currently trading at $2365.78, marking a 0.58% increase. The pivot point is set at $2373.94, acting as a critical level for both support and resistance. Immediate resistance is identified at $2392.68, followed by $2407.88 and $2426.37. Key support levels are at $2355.45, $2337.72, and $2320.49.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $2347.47, and the 200-day EMA is at $2337.51, both suggesting a modest bullish trend.

In conclusion, GOLD’s price movement near the pivot point of $2373.94 indicates a bearish outlook below this level. A break above $2373.94 could shift sentiment to bullish, driving prices toward the resistance levels. Conversely, trading below this pivot point may reinforce the bearish bias.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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