Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: Stalls at $2,320; Brace for a Sell-off Today

By:

Arslan Ali

Published: May 2, 2024, 07:00 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Fed holds rates; gold's rise stalls at $2,326 amid increasing U.S. Treasury yields to 3.45%.
Equity market gains diminish gold's safe-haven appeal as S&P 500 rises by 1.2%.
Gold prices steady near $2,320; traders await key NFP report for future direction.

In this article:

Gold

+1.62%

Market Overview

Gold prices hit resistance at $2,320 on Thursday, tempering the recovery from recent four-week lows. This pullback followed the Federal Reserve’s announcement that it would need stronger evidence of declining inflation before considering rate cuts.

This statement led to an increase in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield climbing to 3.45%, and supported a stronger dollar index, which rose 0.5% to 103.7.

Additionally, a buoyant mood in equity markets, evidenced by a 1.2% rise in the S&P 500, further diminished the appeal of gold as a safe haven.

Federal Reserve’s Influence on Gold Prices

During a press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that, despite ongoing inflation concerns, there would be no further interest rate hikes in the near term.

Traditionally, gold thrives in a lower interest rate environment as it increases the metal’s allure against yield-bearing assets.

However, gold’s ability to maintain a price above the $2,300 support level indicates a cautious approach among traders, which might help stabilize prices for the time being.

Economic Data Impact

The market’s focus is now turning to upcoming U.S. economic releases, with considerable attention on Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), expected to show a job addition of 250,000 positions.

Thursday’s economic reports, including Challenger Job Cuts and Initial Jobless Claims which are anticipated to reflect continuing labor market strength, are also providing directional cues to traders.

Current Market Dynamics

Despite an overnight recovery, gold’s momentum was curtailed by expectations that U.S. interest rates would remain higher for longer. Spot gold was trading around $2,319.98 an ounce after momentarily dropping below the $2,300 mark earlier in the week.

The upcoming NFP report and other economic indicators will be critical in determining gold’s short-term price movements.

Gold Prices Forecast

GOLD Price Chart

Today’s analysis of gold(XAU/USD) for May 2, 2024, shows the precious metal trading at $2,318.25, a decrease of 0.17%. Currently, gold is trading just below its pivot point at $2,326.19, indicating a slight bearish tilt in market sentiment.

The immediate resistance levels are set at $2,352.13, $2,378.36, and $2,417.99, which need to be overcome to shift the bias back to bullish. Conversely, support is found at $2,280.78, with further cushions at $2,243.84 and $2,212.02, suggesting potential floors for price declines.

Technical indicators show the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,324.68, closely aligning with the pivot point, while the 200-day EMA at $2,282.56 offers additional support just below current price levels.

Gold needs to sustain a move above $2,326 to avoid downward pressure. A break above this threshold may reinvigorate bullish sentiment, whereas failure to hold could enhance the bearish outlook.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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