Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: Surges to $2358, Next Stop $2380?

By:

Arslan Ali

Published: May 10, 2024, 06:06 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly rose, sparking gold's price rally as interest rate cut bets grow.
Geopolitical tensions and U.S. trade policy uncertainty bolster gold's status as a safe haven.
Upcoming U.S. economic reports could significantly influence Federal Reserve rate decisions.

In this article:

Gold

-0.68%

Market Overview

Gold prices experienced a boost in Asian trade on Friday, climbing as signs of a cooling U.S. labor market exerted downward pressure on the dollar and Treasury yields, consequently uplifting the precious metal’s value. By the end of the week, gold is expected to achieve a more than 2% increase, its first weekly gain in three weeks, but still trailing behind the record highs observed in late April.

U.S. Labor Market’s Influence on Gold’s Rally

Gold’s ascent was sparked by Thursday’s data revealing a larger-than-anticipated rise in weekly U.S. jobless claims, hitting 231,000 compared to an expected 210,000.

This increase, coupled with April’s lower-than-expected nonfarm payroll addition of 175,000 jobs, heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve might reduce interest rates sooner to bolster economic growth.

Traders have slightly adjusted their bets, now seeing nearly a 50% chance of a rate cut by the Fed in September, as tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool.

Geopolitical Tensions Heighten Safe Haven Demand

The absence of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, along with new U.S. trade tariffs on China, has also fueled demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Reports that the U.S. may withhold weapons sales to Israel in response to its actions in Gaza have added to the geopolitical uncertainties supporting gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Economic Forecasts and Gold Market Sentiment

Looking ahead, the market’s attention is on forthcoming economic indicators that could influence the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions. The U.S. Consumer Price Index and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May, which is expected to drop from 77.2 in April to 76.0, will be particularly telling.

Gold Prices Forecast

Gold – Chart

Today’s analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) shows a modest uptick of 0.23%, bringing the price to $2354.815. The metal’s movements are currently hovering around a crucial pivot point set at $2350.58. Should prices sustain above this level, immediate resistance lies at $2363.64, with subsequent barriers at $2373.80 and $2385.16 that could limit further upside.

Conversely, support levels are well-defined, starting at $2338.00, with stronger floors at $2322.77 and $2305.11, where buyers might re-emerge. The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages are positioned at $2323.45 and $2320.00, respectively, underscoring a potential bullish bias unless prices fall below these averages.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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