Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: Upward Trendline Support; Buy Above $2,355?

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Published: Jul 9, 2024, 06:00 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Gold (XAU/USD) is priced at $2,358.09, trimming over 1% from last Friday's gains.
US equities rose, Treasury yields dipped to 4.27%, impacting Gold's price movement.
Federal Reserve rate cut speculation at 73% influences Gold's short-term price outlook.

Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: Upward Trendline Support; Buy Above $2,355?

Market Overview

Gold Spot (XAU/USD) is currently priced at $2,358.090 on the 2-hour chart. The Gold price forecast turned bearish on Monday, trimming over 1% of last Friday’s gains as risk appetite returned.

US equities rose, and US Treasury bond yields dipped nearly two basis points to 4.27%. Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $2,358, down from a daily high of $2,391.

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Speculations

Mixed US economic data has heightened speculation of a Federal Reserve rate cut. June’s employment numbers exceeded expectations, but revisions for April and May suggest a cooling job market.

The US unemployment rate ticked higher, supporting the likelihood of an interest rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is now a 73% chance of a rate cut in September, up from 71% last week, influencing the XAU/USD price.

Impact of Global Economic Events on XAU/USD Price

China’s decision not to purchase Gold in June, after buying in May, has also affected market sentiment. The upcoming US economic docket, featuring Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony and key inflation figures, will be crucial in determining future XAU/USD price movements.

Analysts expect the US CPI to drop from 3.3% to 3.1% year-over-year in June, with core inflation steady at 3.4%. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 6 are forecasted to rise from 238K to 240K, while July Consumer Sentiment is predicted to improve slightly to 68.5.

The Gold market remains sensitive to these economic indicators, and the XAU/USD price forecast reflects the broader economic environment.

Short-term Forecast

Gold (XAU/USD) is priced at $2,358.09, with immediate resistance at $2,368.81 and support at $2,355.14. Speculation of a Federal Reserve rate cut, now at a 73% probability, influences market sentiment, potentially impacting prices. Maintaining above $2,355.14 suggests an upward trend, while falling below may reinforce bearish momentum.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold – Chart

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently priced at $2,358.09 on the 2-hour chart. The pivot point is positioned at $2,355.14. Immediate resistance levels are $2,368.81, $2,381.43, and $2,393.

Immediate support levels are $2,355.14, $2,342.70, and $2,332.53. The 50-day EMA is at $2,361.09, while the 200-day EMA is at $2,341.49.

The outlook suggests buying above $2,355.14, given the upward trendline-driven pressure. Maintaining prices above the pivot point may signal a potential upward trend, while falling below could reinforce bearish momentum.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.