Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: $3,025 Pivot in Focus as Inflation and Tariff News Loom

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) began the week on the back foot, retreating to $3,013 after failing to extend last week’s limited rebound. The move reflects an improvement in global risk sentiment following reports that former President Donald Trump’s proposed trade tariffs may be softer than initially feared.

With concerns over a global slowdown easing, investors trimmed exposure to safe-haven assets like gold for a third consecutive session.

US Dollar Remains Firm on Hawkish Fed Tone

The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains resilient near the 104.00 level. While it paused its three-day rally, the broader strength continues to weigh on gold. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments reinforced the central bank’s cautious stance.

Powell noted the labor market remains strong and inflation, though improved, is still elevated. These remarks have lowered expectations for aggressive rate cuts, supporting the dollar and pressuring non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.

Market expectations now center around potential rate cuts in June, July, and October, which could cap the dollar’s upside and provide near-term support for gold.

Silver Holds Steady as Geopolitical Risks Linger

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $33.18, struggling to sustain gains amid a stronger dollar and fading momentum. However, the metal remains supported by persistent geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, which continue to drive safe-haven interest.

Geopolitical Risks Offer Floor for Precious Metals

While the risk-on tone in equities has reduced some demand for haven assets, rising tensions in conflict zones continue to offer underlying support. Recent strikes in the Middle East and ongoing military exchanges in Ukraine have maintained market uncertainty.

Outlook: Focus Shifts to Inflation and Manufacturing Data

Investors are now looking to key US economic data, including the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

A stronger-than-expected PCE print could delay rate cut timelines, supporting the dollar and potentially limiting upside in gold. Conversely, weaker inflation data may revive gold’s appeal in the coming sessions.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is treading just below the $3,025.84 pivot, currently priced at $3,022.04, showing little change on the day. Despite the slight dip, price action remains constructive, with gold trading inside a well-defined upward channel on the 4-hour chart.

The 50-day EMA at $3,023.25 is acting as immediate dynamic resistance, while the 200-day EMA at $2,968.98 reinforces a broader bullish trend. As long as gold holds above $2,998.98—the first support—the upward channel remains intact. A sustained break above $3,025.84 would likely trigger a move toward resistance at $3,055.20 and potentially $3,078.42.

However, if price breaks below the channel and the pivot, it could open the door to deeper losses toward $2,980. For now, the bias remains cautiously bullish.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is hovering at $33.14, flat on the day but showing signs of steady bullish momentum. The 4-hour chart reveals a key technical development: the 50-day EMA at $33.39 has crossed above the 200-day EMA at $33.02—often seen as a bullish signal.

This crossover, combined with price holding above the $33.01 pivot point, suggests buyers are still in control. Immediate resistance stands at $33.58, and a break above could open the door to $33.94.

On the downside, support at $32.66 is the level to watch. A drop below $33 could shift sentiment quickly. For now, silver’s uptrend looks intact, but sustained gains depend on holding above the $33.01 zone.