Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Bullish Above $3,125 as Tariff Risks Lift Safe-Haven Demand

Market Overview

Gold prices extended their rally on Tuesday, hitting an all-time high of $3,149 per ounce, as investors positioned defensively ahead of key U.S. policy announcements. Market attention is sharply focused on Wednesday’s expected rollout of reciprocal tariffs by the White House—an event driving demand for traditional safe-haven assets.

Bullion has gained more than 11% year-to-date, underpinned by a confluence of factors including expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, strong central bank buying, and global macro uncertainty.

According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in 63 basis points of rate reductions by the end of 2025, with the first move anticipated in July.

Central Banks, ETF Flows Support Bullish Outlook

Beyond speculative flows, physical demand remains firm. Central banks—particularly in emerging markets—have continued accumulating gold reserves, helping reinforce the bullish momentum.

Additionally, inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have picked up in recent weeks, reversing prior outflows and reflecting renewed institutional interest.

The dollar’s consolidation below key technical resistance and lingering concerns about global trade dynamics have also added to gold’s upward pressure. “With the U.S. dollar losing some ground and Treasury yields stabilizing, the path of least resistance for gold remains to the upside,” said Rong.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold prices have pulled back slightly after touching a new high of $3,149, now trading around $3,126.98 on the 4-hour chart. Despite the dip, the uptrend remains intact within a well-respected ascending channel.

The recent move appears more like a breather than a reversal, especially given the strong bullish momentum that led prices through the $3,116 pivot. This level now serves as immediate support, followed by a firmer floor near $3,085—an area that previously marked a breakout point.

On the upside, resistance is building near $3,178, with a potential extension toward $3,212 if bulls regain traction. Price action continues to float well above both the 50 EMA at $3,057 and the 200 EMA at $2,963, reinforcing the bullish bias. These moving averages are steadily climbing, signaling structural strength.

Unless gold breaks below $3,085, the broader trend remains upward, though a brief consolidation phase wouldn’t be out of character after such a vertical stretch.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is pulling back slightly from recent highs, trading around $33.91 after testing $34.58 resistance earlier in the session. Despite the decline, the 4-hour chart shows the uptrend remains intact, with prices still supported by an ascending trendline stretching from the March lows.

The 50 EMA at $33.81 and the 200 EMA at $32.93 continue to slope upward, reinforcing a bullish medium-term outlook.

For now, $33.82 serves as immediate support. A break below that could expose $33.30, while a bounce may target a return to $34.58, followed by $35.08 if momentum resumes.

The structure suggests the market is pausing rather than reversing. As long as silver stays above the trendline and 50 EMA, the path of least resistance remains upward, even if near-term consolidation unfolds.