Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Bullish Momentum Hinges on Breaks Above $2,633 and $30.11

Market Overview

Gold prices (XAU/USD) began the week with subdued movement, hovering near $2,627 and trading within a narrow range of $2,617.59 to $2,629.30. The precious metal remains under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) steadies near a two-year high, limiting gold’s upside potential.

However, the dollar’s slight pullback following weaker-than-expected inflation data has provided some support to gold, which is often viewed as a hedge against economic uncertainty.

US Treasury yields continue to weigh on gold, supported by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance indicating slower rate cuts in 2025. Additionally, robust global stock markets are curbing gold’s safe-haven appeal.

“Geopolitical risks remain a key factor supporting gold prices,” said analysts, pointing to ongoing conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

Silver Outperforms as Investors Seek Safe Havens

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $29.68, climbing toward an intraday high of $29.76. The metal has benefited from its relatively lower price point compared to gold, making it an attractive alternative for risk-averse investors. While the strength of the US Dollar poses challenges, silver has been buoyed by its dual role as a safe-haven asset and an industrial metal.

“Silver’s accessibility and broad appeal make it a resilient investment option in uncertain times,” noted market experts. The metal’s recent momentum is further underpinned by heightened geopolitical tensions and a marginally positive industrial outlook.

US Dollar Weakens Slightly Amid Cooling Inflation

The US Dollar Index (DXY) pulled back from recent highs after November’s Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index indicated a cooling inflation trend. The core PCE rose 2.8% year-over-year, matching October’s level but missing the forecast of 2.9%. Personal income grew 0.3%, while consumer spending increased by 0.4%, suggesting moderate economic activity.

Looking ahead, traders are closely monitoring the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, due Monday, for clues on future dollar movement.

Geopolitical tensions and mixed US economic data continue to shape the outlook for gold and silver, with both metals remaining key indicators of investor sentiment in a volatile market.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold prices hover near $2,625, with resistance at $2,633 and support at $2,583. Silver trades at $29.68, needing a break above $30.11 for bullish momentum.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating near $2,625, supported by an ascending trendline around the $2,583 level. This upward trendline has been a key factor in preventing further declines. The pivot point at $2,633 now acts as a significant resistance level, with further upside capped by the 50 EMA at $2,637. Beyond that, the next major resistance lies near $2,674.

The 200 EMA at $2,650 aligns with the overall bearish trend, keeping the broader outlook cautious. On the downside, immediate support is at $2,583, followed by $2,537, both crucial to maintaining bullish momentum.

While the ascending trendline provides a bullish foundation, breaking above the $2,633 pivot and 50 EMA will be critical for a sustained recovery.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $29.68, recovering from recent lows at $28.79, with support from an ascending trendline. The pivot point at $30.11 now acts as a key resistance level, with further upside limited by the 50 EMA at $30.15. Beyond that, the next significant resistance is seen at $30.74.

The 200 EMA at $30.88 reinforces the broader bearish trend, but the recovery from support levels indicates growing buying momentum. On the downside, immediate support lies at $28.79, followed by $28.06, both critical for maintaining the current upward trajectory.

While silver shows signs of strength, breaking above $30.11 and the 50 EMA is necessary to confirm a bullish reversal and target higher levels.