Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Bulls Defend $3,000 as Fed Bets Mount

Market Overview

Gold prices continue to hold firm above the $3,000 level, trading at $3,022.92 on Wednesday, as demand remains strong amid persistent trade tensions and rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Although the metal has not surpassed Tuesday’s high, its ability to maintain elevated levels reflects growing market caution and steady interest in safe-haven assets.

Investors are increasingly focused on upcoming U.S. macroeconomic releases, including Friday’s PCE Price Index, which may provide a clearer outlook on the Fed’s monetary policy stance.

Anticipation of U.S. tariffs set to begin April 2 on imports from 15 trading partners has further fueled demand for gold as a hedge against trade-related uncertainty.

“Gold remains supported by soft U.S. data and a weaker dollar,” noted a commodities strategist at a New York-based investment bank. “With the Fed under pressure to act, rate cut bets are increasingly being priced into the market.”

Weaker U.S. Data Reinforces Dovish Bias

Recent data signals softening economic conditions. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 92.9 in March, its lowest since 2020, while the Expectations Index fell to 65.2, a level historically associated with recessionary outlooks.

The U.S. dollar has since retreated from a recent high, helping non-yielding assets like gold gain traction.

While the Fed’s current forecast includes two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2024, market pricing suggests a more aggressive path, with expectations for cuts beginning as early as June.

Fed Governor Adriana Kugler acknowledged slower progress toward the 2% inflation target, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expressed caution over inflation’s persistence.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold remains supported above $3,000 as markets await PCE data. A break above $3,035 may extend gains; below $3,006 risks a pullback toward $2,955.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading at $3,022.92, holding just above its pivot point at $3,006.12, with a modest intraday gain of 0.03%. The broader trend remains bullish, supported by an upward channel that’s been intact over recent sessions.

Price is comfortably above the 50 EMA at $3,008.86 and the 200 EMA at $2,931.45, reinforcing short-term strength. If gold can push through $3,035.83, the next test lies at $3,058.02.

On the flip side, a break below $3,006 would weaken momentum and open the door toward $2,982.37 and $2,955.48.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading at $33.63, essentially flat on the day but holding a constructive tone above its pivot point at $33.34. The price action is supported by both the 50 EMA at $33.35 and the 200 EMA at $32.61, with an upward trendline reinforcing the short-term bullish bias.

As long as silver stays above $33.34, buyers remain in control, with upside targets at $33.81 and $34.23. A close above those levels could open room for further gains. On the downside, any sustained move below $32.99 could shift sentiment and test support at $32.67.