Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: China Stimulus Hopes and Dollar Moves Shape Market Trends

Market Overview

Gold prices (XAU/USD) extended their rally for the fourth consecutive day, touching $2,665 on Friday. The upward momentum is driven by rising safe-haven demand amidst persistent geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty.

While a stronger U.S. dollar, recently hovering around 109.20 after hitting a multi-year high of 109.56, adds pressure on gold, subdued U.S. Treasury bond yields—2-year at 4.24% and 10-year at 4.56%—enhance gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.

Investor concerns are further amplified by central bank activity. According to the World Gold Council, record gold purchases by central banks in 2024 are expected to continue into 2025, supporting demand.

Additionally, China’s economic policies, including potential interest rate cuts, could stimulate further gold buying, particularly as its services and construction sectors show signs of recovery.

Silver Follows Gold’s Lead

Silver prices (XAG/USD) also saw gains, trading at $29.60 with an intra-day high of $29.64. Often considered a more affordable alternative to gold, silver benefits from similar safe-haven dynamics.

Investor appetite for silver is bolstered by inflation concerns and a weaker economic outlook globally.

The metal’s dual role as an industrial commodity and a store of value positions it to gain further, especially as expectations for global economic recovery take hold.

Geopolitical Tensions Amplify Precious Metal Demand

Global geopolitical risks, including escalating conflicts and concerns over nuclear programs, are key drivers behind the increased demand for both gold and silver.

These factors, combined with central bank policies and ongoing economic uncertainty, have created a supportive environment for precious metals.

With central banks and investors prioritizing stability, gold and silver remain favored choices, signaling potential for sustained gains.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold consolidates near $2,659, with key resistance at $2,675.33 and support at $2,641.02. Silver steadies at $29.60, targeting $29.88, backed by safe-haven demand.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,659.16, marking a modest 0.04% increase as it consolidates near the $2,662.92 pivot point. The 4-hour chart indicates a mixed outlook, with immediate resistance at $2,675.33 and further upside targets at $2,692.57.

On the downside, key support levels lie at $2,641.02 and $2,621.77, providing a safety net for potential pullbacks. Technical indicators suggest cautious sentiment. Gold is trading above its 50 EMA at $2,631.16 but slightly below its 200 EMA at $2,641.83, reflecting a tight range.

A decisive break above $2,662.92 could reinforce bullish momentum, while a drop below $2,641.02 may invite selling pressure. Traders should monitor these levels closely for directional clarity.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $29.60, up 0.12%, signaling steady bullish momentum as it holds above the pivot point at $29.34. Immediate resistance is seen at $29.88, with further upside targets at $30.43, while support lies at $28.78 and $28.32, providing a safety net for potential pullbacks.

The 4-hour chart reveals mixed sentiment. Silver trades above its 50 EMA at $29.51, reinforcing short-term bullish momentum, but remains below the 200 EMA at $30.37, indicating potential longer-term resistance.

A sustained move above $29.88 could attract additional buying, while a dip below $29.34 may trigger renewed selling pressure.