Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Dovish Fed Outlook Offsets Dollar-Driven Selling Pressure

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) edged lower on Friday, slipping toward $3,029 as the U.S. dollar extended its rebound for a third consecutive session. The pullback reflects a shift in investor sentiment ahead of the weekend, with traders reducing long positions in response to the dollar’s renewed strength.

Despite the day’s decline, gold remains poised for a third straight weekly gain—buoyed by a combination of rate cut expectations and elevated geopolitical risk.

The greenback’s strength has been supported by cautious market positioning and safe-haven flows into U.S. assets. The Dollar Index climbed above 103.60, dampening bullion demand in the short term. However, the broader narrative still supports gold’s upside.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently reaffirmed plans for two 25-basis-point rate cuts by year-end, with market pricing indicating a 65% probability of easing beginning in June, according to CME FedWatch.

Silver Softens, But Fundamentals Stay Firm

Silver (XAG/USD) also faced selling pressure, trading near $33.13 after hitting an intra-day low of $32.97.

While the dollar’s strength weighed on the metal, silver’s outlook remains supported by the same macro factors underpinning gold: persistent geopolitical instability and expectations of looser monetary policy.

Geopolitical Risks Sustain Safe-Haven Demand

Rising tensions across Eastern Europe have added another layer of risk to global markets. Russia and Ukraine remain locked in escalating military exchanges, including drone attacks targeting strategic infrastructure. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts continue behind closed doors, with U.S. and Russian officials expected to meet in Saudi Arabia for de-escalation talks.

While the short-term strength in the dollar is limiting upside for precious metals, analysts argue that a prolonged environment of geopolitical stress and dovish central bank policy should continue to favor gold and silver.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold eyes $3,058 resistance while holding support at $3,023; silver stays firm above $32.97. Dollar strength caps gains, but rate cut bets keep the bullish case intact.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is hovering near $3,029, slightly down on the day, as it consolidates above its pivot point at $3,023.58. The 50-day EMA at $3,023.83 is offering key near-term support, while the longer-term 200-day EMA at $2,962.13 reinforces the broader uptrend.

A sustained hold above $3,023 keeps bullish momentum intact, with resistance levels at $3,058.41 and $3,078.42 in focus. However, a break below the $3,001.58 support zone could open the door to a deeper pullback toward $2,982.37.

If prices hold above $3,023, the market may attempt another leg higher. Below that, sentiment could shift quickly to the downside.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $33.13, slightly higher on the day, as it holds above its pivot point at $32.97. This level remains crucial—it’s also near the 200-day EMA at $33.01, which is acting as a stabilizing force.

However, the 50-day EMA at $33.60 still looms above, capping upside momentum for now. If silver clears immediate resistance at $33.44, the next target sits at $33.94. On the downside, if $32.70 fails to hold, prices could retreat toward $32.41.

Overall, the technical setup leans bullish while prices remain above $32.97, but traders are watching for a clean break above $33.60 to confirm broader strength and continuation toward higher highs.