Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Prices Rally on Tariff Shock and Dovish Fed

Market Overview

Gold prices advanced sharply on Thursday, reaching a high of $3,038 during the Asian session as traders responded to growing trade friction and rising expectations of Federal Reserve policy easing. Silver tracked gold’s strength, climbing to $33.76, supported by similar macroeconomic drivers.

The renewed rally in precious metals follows the announcement of a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks, set to begin next week. The move, announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, has heightened market uncertainty, triggering a flight toward traditional safe-haven assets. The prospect of reciprocal tariffs from major trading partners has added to concerns over slowing global trade momentum.

Despite robust U.S. economic data—February’s Durable Goods Orders rose by 0.9%, and Core Durable Goods gained 0.7%—the U.S. dollar is under mild pressure. The greenback’s weakness is largely attributed to a shift in monetary policy expectations. Dovish signals from the Fed have taken precedence over stronger data, underpinning gold’s rise.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Gain Momentum

The Federal Reserve has revised its growth forecast downward for 2025 and now expects two 25-basis-point rate cuts, citing uncertainty around ongoing trade measures. Fed officials continue to express caution regarding inflation. Neel Kashkari noted progress toward the 2% inflation target but emphasized the need for further tightening if trade policy inflames price pressures.

Austan Goolsbee added that lingering inflation risks could delay rate cuts, while Alberto Musalem maintained that restrictive policy is still needed to anchor inflation expectations.

Markets are now turning to Thursday’s U.S. data slate, which includes the final reading of Q4 GDP, weekly jobless claims, and pending home sales. However, Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index remains the key event for traders. As the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, it could significantly influence the timing of rate adjustments.

Precious Metals Maintain Bullish Outlook

With escalating trade risks and dovish monetary policy signals, gold and silver remain well-supported. Technicals and macro fundamentals align to keep precious metals attractive, particularly as traders seek portfolio protection amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading around $3,028.13, easing slightly on the day but still showing resilience above key technical levels. The 4-hour chart highlights a clear upward channel, with the 50-day EMA at $3,022.06 offering near-term support, and the 200-day EMA down at $2,984.63 reinforcing the broader bullish structure.

As long as prices remain above the pivot point at $3,014.85, the bias leans upward. Immediate resistance sits at $3,058.02, followed by a stronger ceiling at $3,080.86. If bulls can build momentum, those levels could be tested in the near term.

On the downside, watch $2,982.37 as the first line of defense. A decisive drop below that may shift sentiment more broadly. For now, gold remains technically supported within a healthy trend.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $33.70, slightly higher on the session and consolidating just above its key pivot point at $33.51. The 50-period EMA at $33.51 and 200 EMA at $33.16 are both supporting the current structure, reinforcing a short-term bullish bias.

Price action is tightening within a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting a breakout may be near. Immediate resistance sits at $33.92, followed by $34.23—levels that could trigger a quick upside extension if cleared.

On the downside, $33.21 and $32.90 serve as support. The current structure reflects a market waiting for a catalyst. If bulls can push through the triangle’s upper boundary, momentum may pick up quickly. For now, the price remains buoyant above trend and EMAs.