Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Safe-Haven Demand Rises Amid Tariff Fears & Economic Uncertainty

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) continues its bullish run, surging to an intra-day high of $2,905, driven by a weaker US Dollar and shifting market expectations on interest rates. The US Retail Sales report for January posted a 0.9% decline, significantly worse than the forecasted 0.1% drop, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like Gold. December’s retail figures were also revised downward, further exacerbating concerns about consumer demand.

Adding to the momentum, market sentiment now suggests the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates by September, sooner than previous expectations. Lower interest rates tend to boost non-yielding assets like Gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding them.

Kevin Hassett, an advisor at the US National Economic Council, pointed out that declining US Treasury yields signal expectations of lower inflation, further reinforcing Gold’s bullish outlook.

Despite the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance on monetary policy, Gold has defied traditional trends. Typically, higher rates dampen Gold’s appeal, but the market’s risk-off sentiment continues to support the metal’s rise.

Geopolitical Risks and Tariff Fears Drive Demand for Gold

Beyond economic data, geopolitical concerns and trade policies have fueled Gold’s demand. US President Donald Trump has hinted at new reciprocal tariffs, specifically targeting countries imposing trade barriers on US imports.

The looming threat of auto tariffs by April 2 has intensified fears of a global trade war, increasing Gold’s attractiveness as a hedge against uncertainty.

Meanwhile, negotiations between the US and Russia regarding the ongoing Ukraine conflict have had little effect on Gold’s momentum. Typically, progress in peace talks could reduce safe-haven demand, but market sentiment remains focused on inflation trends and central bank policy rather than diplomatic developments.

Silver Joins the Rally, Holding Above $32

Silver (XAG/USD) is also riding the precious metals uptrend, trading at $32.08 as demand for safe-haven assets rises. Weakness in the US Dollar Index (DXY) has provided a strong foundation for Silver’s rally, while broader industrial demand remains steady.

Unlike Gold, which benefits solely from its safe-haven appeal, Silver’s dual role as both a monetary and industrial metal supports its growth. Demand from the electronics and renewable energy sectors continues to boost its long-term outlook, while rising geopolitical tensions have made it a preferred asset for investors seeking diversification.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold (XAU/USD) faces resistance at $2,904, with a break below risking declines to $2,864. Silver (XAG/USD) struggles near $32.32, with downside potential toward $31.70 if buyers fail to hold support.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is hovering around $2,892, struggling to hold above the critical pivot point at $2,904.43. The metal has slipped slightly, down 0.01%, as it faces pressure from shifting market sentiment. Technically, a break below $2,904 confirms a bearish setup, with support at $2,864.82 and a deeper slide potentially testing $2,835.10.

The 50-day EMA at $2,902.10 is acting as immediate resistance, keeping upside attempts in check. Meanwhile, the 200-day EMA at $2,842.33 signals strong long-term support. If Gold reclaims $2,904, buyers could push toward $2,937.33 and $2,965.27.

The recent breakdown below an upward trendline hints at further downside risk. If momentum weakens, expect a retest of key support levels before Gold finds its next direction.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is edging higher, trading at $32.08, but struggling to break past the $32.32 pivot point. A 0.02% gain suggests buyers are testing resistance, yet the metal remains vulnerable to downside pressure.

The 50-day EMA at $32.28 is capping gains, while the 200-day EMA at $31.68 provides a solid support base.

A drop below $32.32 confirms bearish momentum, potentially dragging prices toward $31.70 and further down to $31.25. On the upside, a breakout above $32.76 could trigger a rally toward $33.27.

A recent cross below the 50 EMA signals increasing downside risks. If silver fails to reclaim the pivot point, expect further selling pressure toward support zones.