Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Traders Await NFP Report as Gold Tests Key Resistance

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading just above $2,910, maintaining a narrow range as investors assess upcoming U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. A weaker U.S. dollar and increasing expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are keeping gold supported, though price movement remains measured.

Trade developments have added to uncertainty. Canada has delayed its second round of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods until April 2, following President Donald Trump’s decision to exempt Canadian and Mexican imports from his proposed 25% tariffs under the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA). This policy shift has affected broader market sentiment, contributing to gold’s stability.

Silver Consolidates as Rate Cut Expectations Build

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $32.55, slightly above its session low of $32.43. The metal is holding firm, with support coming from a softer U.S. dollar and increased speculation that the Federal Reserve will ease policy in the months ahead. However, concerns over global trade and restrained investor activity are limiting major price swings.

The U.S. dollar continues to drift lower as markets price in multiple Fed rate cuts in 2025. Economic data points to slowing momentum, reinforcing expectations of policy adjustments that could favor non-yielding assets like gold and silver.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 221,000 last week, lower than expected. However, this had little impact on the dollar or gold, as attention remains on the upcoming NFP report. Forecasts suggest job gains of 160,000 in February, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4%.

Fed Policy and Economic Signals Shape Gold’s Path

Federal Reserve officials have acknowledged economic risks, reinforcing expectations of eventual rate cuts. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic pointed to slowing growth as a concern, suggesting policy adjustments may be warranted. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated he does not support a rate cut in March but did not rule out easing later in the year if inflation declines further.

Market sentiment is also adjusting to shifts in trade policy. Trump’s temporary exemption of tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods has introduced new variables for businesses and investors, influencing broader market positioning.

China is preparing additional stimulus measures. Finance Minister Lan Foan has signaled the government’s willingness to support economic growth if needed, while People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng has suggested interest rate and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) reductions could be considered.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold remains steady above $2,910 as traders await U.S. jobs data. A break above $2,928.31 could fuel gains, while a drop below $2,905.36 may trigger short-term selling pressure.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,911.66, edging slightly higher by 0.02% as it maintains stability above the key pivot level of $2,905.36. The price action remains within an upward channel, suggesting continued bullish sentiment, reinforced by the 50-day EMA at $2,906.37 acting as dynamic support.

The 200-day EMA at $2,895.62 further strengthens the case for buyers in the market.

Immediate resistance stands at $2,928.31, with a breakout above this level opening the door to $2,954.75. However, failure to sustain above $2,905.36 could expose gold to downside risk, with key support levels at $2,878.61 and $2,858.63.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $32.57, inching up 0.02% as it holds above the key pivot point of $32.42. The price action remains bullish, supported by an upward channel and reinforced by the 50-day EMA at $32.22 and the 200-day EMA at $32.02. These moving averages indicate that buyers are in control, keeping silver’s momentum intact.

Immediate resistance stands at $32.77, with a breakout paving the way for a test of $33.22. On the downside, support at $31.96 is critical, with a breach exposing silver to further declines toward $31.47. Traders should watch for sustained movement above $32.42 to confirm further gains. A drop below this level could shift sentiment, leading to increased selling pressure.