Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Trump’s Trade Threats Anchor XAU at $3,100

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) reversed early gains on Wednesday, trading near $3,115 per ounce as renewed selling pressure and a firmer U.S. dollar dampened safe-haven demand. The yellow metal had initially attracted buyers on the back of escalating global trade tensions, particularly surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs. However, as profit-taking emerged at elevated levels and the dollar regained some footing, momentum faded.

“Investors are showing signs of caution ahead of the tariff announcement, which could disrupt global trade flows and weigh on risk appetite,” said a senior metals strategist at a New York-based investment firm. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the recent peak suggests immediate support around $3,097, with upside capped below $3,149.

Silver Under Pressure Despite Safe-Haven Demand

Silver (XAG/USD) also retreated, trading near $33.87 after touching an intraday low of $33.46. The metal remains sensitive to shifts in risk sentiment, especially as traders book profits amid a stronger dollar.

While geopolitical uncertainty continues to support a floor under silver prices, upside momentum is limited by technical resistance and investor indecision.

Silver’s movement reflects a broader theme across precious metals: while macroeconomic concerns and inflation fears support long-term bullish sentiment, near-term positioning remains data-dependent.

Fed Cut Expectations Anchor Precious Metals Outlook

A string of weak U.S. data has increased bets that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates. The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 in March, pointing to a contraction in activity. Simultaneously, the JOLTS job openings dropped to 7.56 million in February, down from 7.76 million the month prior, signaling softness in the labor market.

Factory-level inflation surged to a near three-year high, raising concerns of stagflation. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in 80 basis points of rate cuts by year-end. Lower interest rate expectations typically favor non-yielding assets like gold and silver, providing a fundamental backdrop for longer-term strength.

As markets await further clarity from the Trump administration’s tariff details and U.S. economic reports, volatility in the metals space is likely to persist.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) remains firmly within its upward-sloping channel on the 2-hour chart, despite a modest pullback to $3,114.58. The price action has found interim support near the $3,108 pivot, which aligns with the midline of the channel and just above the 50 EMA at $3,097.44. As long as gold holds above this area, the bullish structure remains intact.

Immediate resistance stands at $3,149.08, with the next major ceiling at $3,168.71. On the downside, a break below $3,108 could expose support near $3,088.97 and $3,072.46. The broader uptrend is underpinned by the 200 EMA at $3,028.69, which continues to rise steadily.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is consolidating around $33.81 on the 2-hour chart after bouncing from $33.58 support, where a confluence of trendlines has formed a symmetrical triangle. Price remains capped by descending resistance near $33.90, which aligns with the 50 EMA at $33.91. The 200 EMA below at $33.49 continues to offer structural support.

This setup is being shaped by an ABCD harmonic pattern, where the recent “D” point near $33.90 failed to produce a breakout. For bulls, a decisive move above $34.21 is needed to shift momentum upward and challenge $34.46 resistance. On the downside, a break below $33.58 could expose $33.10 and $32.84 next.

Until price escapes the triangle, silver is likely to stay choppy and sensitive to macro headlines.