Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Will FOMC Decision Trigger a Breakout?

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) surged to an all-time high of $3,044 on Wednesday, driven by mounting geopolitical tensions and speculation over the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Investors, seeking a hedge against uncertainty, continued to pile into the metal, reinforcing its role as a safe-haven asset.

However, as markets await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, gold’s bullish momentum is facing resistance. Traders are closely watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks, which could provide clarity on the future of interest rates.

While the central bank is expected to hold rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%, any unexpected hawkish signals could trigger selling pressure, whereas a dovish stance may fuel another leg higher.

Silver (XAG/USD) is holding near $34.07, slightly lower after touching an intraday low of $33.86. The metal remains in a consolidation phase, balancing between dollar strength and speculation that the Fed may pivot toward rate cuts.

A more dovish Powell could attract renewed buying in silver, reinforcing its role as both a safe-haven and industrial asset.

U.S. Dollar Recovers as Fed Decision Looms

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded to 103.40 after hitting a five-month low, as traders adjusted their positions ahead of the Fed’s announcement. A stronger dollar typically weighs on gold, but weaker economic data has tempered its rally.

February retail sales grew just 0.2%, missing the forecasted 0.7%, while January’s downward revision to -1.2% heightened concerns about slowing consumer demand. This has put pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy sooner rather than later.

Meanwhile, China’s latest economic stimulus measures have provided some optimism, with retail sales rising 4.0% YoY and industrial production expanding 5.9%. However, gold remains highly sensitive to Fed rate expectations, and any deviation from market consensus could dictate the next major price move.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold remains bullish above $3,027, targeting $3,050, while silver holds steady at $34.07, eyeing a potential breakout. The FOMC decision will likely set the direction for both metals.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is holding firm near $3,044, up 0.07% on the day, as it consolidates within an upward trend. The 50-day EMA at $2,997 is acting as dynamic support, reinforcing the bullish momentum.

The metal is trading above the key pivot point at $3,027, signaling continued strength, with immediate resistance at $3,050. A break above this level could push gold toward $3,067 and potentially higher if momentum builds.

On the downside, initial support sits at $3,006, with a deeper pullback possibly testing $2,986 if selling pressure increases. With an active upward channel, buyers remain in control for now. Traders should watch for a confirmed breakout above $3,050 or a break below $3,027 to determine the next move.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $34.07, hovering around its pivot point at $33.88. The metal remains in an upward trend, supported by the 50-day EMA at $33.72. If silver holds above this level, the next resistance stands at $34.23, with a potential move toward $34.47 if buying momentum builds.

On the downside, immediate support is at $33.68, and a break below could trigger further selling, exposing $33.43 as the next key level. The 200-day EMA at $32.87 suggests a broader bullish trend remains intact.

With silver consolidating within an upward channel, traders should watch for a breakout above $34.23 or a break below $33.88 to determine the next directional move.