Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Bullish Bias Intact Despite Powell’s Hawkish Tone

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) held near $3,327 on Friday, easing from its record high of $3,358 earlier in the week. The retreat was modest and largely driven by profit-taking ahead of the Easter holiday. Silver remained firm around $32.51, supported by steady industrial demand.

Trade Uncertainty and Dollar Weakness Provide a Floor

Gold’s underlying support remains intact, bolstered by growing trade concerns and a softer U.S. dollar. President Trump’s tariff measures have heightened fears of global supply chain disruptions.

The World Trade Organization now forecasts a 0.2% contraction in global goods trade this year, adding to the risk-off tone. Meanwhile, the weakening DXY has enhanced gold’s relative appeal for foreign investors.

Fed Policy and Economic Data Offer Mixed Signals

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled caution on rate cuts, pointing to persistent inflation and uneven economic momentum. Markets still price in 86 basis points of cuts by year-end 2025, with July flagged as the earliest likely move.

U.S. jobless claims declined to 215,000, suggesting labor market resilience, though continuing claims ticked up to 1.885 million. March housing data was mixed—permits rose 1.6%, while starts slipped.

Outlook: Momentum Intact, but Caution Prevails

Despite the recent pullback, gold’s broader trend remains constructive. As long as rate uncertainty lingers and trade risks persist, investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver is likely to remain firm.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold holds above $3,322 support as trade risks and a weak dollar sustain safe-haven demand. Silver eyes $33.11 resistance, but momentum hinges on holding key support near $32.12.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is attempting to regain footing after a sharp pullback, now trading around $3,327. The pivot level at $3,322 is holding, supported by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Immediate resistance lies at $3,356, followed by $3,377 and $3,398.

On the downside, support comes in at $3,301, with deeper cushions at $3,284 and $3,267. The 50 EMA, now trending near $3,267, suggests the broader bullish structure remains intact.

So far, buyers are defending the trendline, hinting that sentiment hasn’t turned bearish just yet. But unless we see a convincing break above $3,356, gold’s upside may remain capped in the short term.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is holding steady around $32.51 after bouncing off trendline support that’s been in play since early April. The pivot level at $32.26 is proving resilient, keeping the bullish structure intact for now. Immediate resistance is $33.11, with further upside targets at $33.64 and $34.15.

On the downside, $32.12 and $31.73 serve as critical supports. The 50 EMA at $32.28 is rising and currently backing the trendline. While momentum is still leaning bullish, the market looks cautious—each move higher is being tested quickly.

If silver can sustain above the trendline and clear $33.11, we may see another leg up. But any slip below $32.12 could prompt a deeper correction. Watch the reaction around $32.50 closely.