Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Bullish Breakout as Tariff Chaos Fuels Demand

Market Overview

Gold prices surged during early Asian trading on Wednesday, extending gains for the fifth time in six sessions. Spot gold (XAU/USD) touched a new record high near $3,311 per ounce, fueled by heightened global uncertainty, rising expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025, and a declining U.S. dollar.

Silver also advanced, with XAG/USD trading around $32.49, continuing its upward trajectory alongside gold. Both metals have gained favor as safe-haven assets amid turbulent market conditions and erratic tariff policies from Washington and Beijing.

“Markets are bracing for further disruptions as trade tensions escalate unpredictably. Gold and silver are natural beneficiaries in such a climate,” said a Hong Kong-based precious metals strategist.

Tariff Volatility Fuels Flight to Safety

The latest rally in gold is largely driven by abrupt shifts in U.S. trade policy. On Monday, President Trump delayed certain tariffs for 90 days, sparing electronics such as smartphones and computers. Just days later, he reversed course, reaffirming a 145% duty on select Chinese imports, while threatening additional tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.

In response, China announced its own tariff hike, raising duties on U.S. goods to 125%. The rapid policy reversals and lack of clarity have sparked fears of a prolonged trade conflict, sending investors into assets less vulnerable to policy risk.

Rate Cut Bets and Dollar Weakness Underpin Bullion Demand

Markets are now pricing in 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts in 2025, dragging the U.S. Dollar Index to its lowest level since April 2022. A weaker dollar has improved the relative appeal of gold for non-dollar holders, adding further fuel to the rally.

Even stronger-than-expected Chinese growth figures—Q1 GDP rose 5.4% year-over-year—were overshadowed by global trade anxieties. Until the Federal Reserve clarifies its policy trajectory, gold and silver are likely to remain well bid amid safe-haven flows.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold and silver remain in firm uptrends, supported by safe-haven demand, a weak U.S. dollar, and bullish technical breakouts. Upside momentum targets $3,350 for gold and $34.60 for silver.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to surge, breaking out of its consolidation range and now trading above $3,310, a fresh all-time high. The breakout from the $3,214–$3,245 congestion zone confirms strong bullish momentum, supported by robust demand for safe-haven assets and a weakening U.S. dollar.

The 50 EMA ($3,173) is trending upward, reinforcing the bullish bias. Immediate resistance lies at $3,332, followed by $3,364. On the downside, first support is at $3,298, with stronger support at $3,269 if price retraces.

As long as gold holds above $3,298, bulls remain in control. A daily close above $3,310 may invite further upside toward the $3,350–$3,375 zone.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) continues its bullish advance, now trading around $32.94, after breaking above the $32.60 resistance and confirming a rising wedge breakout. Momentum is underpinned by both the 50 EMA ($31.92) and 200 EMA ($32.29) trending upward, supporting a broader bullish structure.

Resistance lies at $33.48, followed by $34.08 and $34.58. Immediate support is now seen at $32.60, and further down at $31.82. Price action respects the ascending trendline from the April 5 lows.

As long as silver remains above $32.60, bulls are favored. A sustained break above $33.48 could trigger a test of multi-month highs near $34.60.