Gold’s Bullish Surge: Setting the Stage for an Eventual New Record High?

Gold Forecast Video for 19.10.23 by Bruce Powers

Gold triggered a bullish trend continuation signal today on a rally above yesterday’s high and the trend high of 1,932. It subsequently advanced to a high of 1,963 before a retracement kicked in. That high price was a little higher than the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement that was completed today at 1,960. The rally showed strength as gold got above the most recent swing high of 1,953. It doesn’t look like gold will be able to close above that swing high, which would further signal strength for the price of gold. Gold was up as much as 8.4% at today’s high when measured from the last swing low of 1,810 reached only eight days ago.

Today’s Rally Triggers Trendline Breakout

Today’s rally is significant as gold broke through its downtrend line that has defined dynamic resistance of the retracement and will close above it today. Further, it is on track to close strong, clearly above the line and in the top third of the day’s range (at the time of this writing). Today’s bullish price action clears the way for gold to eventually test and likely exceed its record high of 2,082 from May of this year. How it approaches that high is the question. Does it happen fast or slow? We will be watching.

Measured Move Targets 1,933

An initial primary target on the way up is identified at the completion of a 10.5% measured move around 1,993. The two prior measured moves from earlier in the uptrend that began from the November 2022 lows are being used as a gauge and are highlighted on the chart.

The 1,993 target is contained within a larger potential resistance zone from around 1,985 to 2,001 that consists of Fibonacci levels and the next higher swing high from July 20. At the top of the range is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2,001.

Price Above Trendline Should be Maintained

For the bull case to be maintained in the near-term gold should find support above or at the downtrend line. And in the short-term the prior trend high and 50% level on the way up around 1,930/1,931 is an initial price area to watch for signs of support.

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