Gold’s Downtrend Continues: Resistance Holds, Bears Remain in Control

Gold Forecast Video for 26.06.23 by Bruce Powers

Gold goes outside day on Friday. Earlier in the session gold rallied above yesterday’s high of 1,935 to again test resistance around the 100-Day EMA (1,939), reaching a daily high of 1,937. Resistance held and gold turned back down to drop to below yesterday’s low of 1,912. Today’s low was 1,911 as of the time of this writing.

Hits Lowest Price of the Correction

For the current correction, today’s low is the lowest price seen, and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement was also completed at 1,911. At today’s low, gold was down 8.3% from the 2,082 peak and record high hit seven weeks ago.

100-Day Line Rejects Price to the Downside

The test of the 100-Day line today as resistance confirms that the downtrend is well in place. In addition, at the time of this writing, gold is on track to complete as a bearish inverted hammer candlestick pattern today, thereby opening the door to lower prices. Of course, a bearish confirmation signal would need to occur with a drop below today’s low followed by a daily close below it.

Possible Support and Low Close by

At the same time, gold could be close to reaching a support area that will complete the retracement, if it hasn’t already. The more significant long-term trend indicator, the 200-Day EMA, is a little below today’s low at 1,895. It held as support during the approach in late-February/early-March and should do so again, particularly given the larger bullish pattern that has been evolving in the precious metal. Ideally, for the bulls, support is found above the 200-Day line, which would reflect relative strength compared to the prior test of the line when it was touched earlier in the year.

What About the Bull?

Considering a bullish perspective, gold would need to first close above the 100-Day EMA and 3-Day high at 1,939. If it can then sustain itself above the level and follow with additional signs of strength, it has a chance at a bullish reversal. Subsequently, a daily close above this week’s high of 1,959 will confirm strength on a larger time frame and increases the likelihood that the correction is complete, and gold can continue to evolve its uptrend.

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