Grayscale’s Pursuit of a Spot Cardano ETF: Potential Catalyst for ADA’s Price Rise

Cardano (ADA) has recently undergone a strong corrective phase, leading to a significant price decline. However, recent technical signals, including an Elliott Wave structure and Fibonacci retracements, suggest a potential bullish recovery may be in progress.

Will today’s news impact the price of ADA positively and catalyze the expected rise? 

Grayscale Files for Spot Cardano ETF

Grayscale Investments, through NYSE Arca, has filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch a spot Cardano (ADA) exchange-traded fund (ETF). If approved, this would be Grayscale’s first standalone investment product for ADA, allowing investors to gain exposure to Cardano without directly holding the cryptocurrency. 

Coinbase Custody Trust Company is designated as the custodian for the ADA assets, while BNY Mellon Asset Servicing will serve as the fund’s administrator. This move reflects growing institutional interest in alternative cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. It follows Grayscale’s recent efforts to expand its crypto ETF offerings, including filings to convert its Solana and XRP trusts into spot ETFs. 

The increasing number of such filings indicates a broader push for diversified crypto investment vehicles in the U.S. market. 

ADA Price Analysis 

ADA has completed an extended corrective wave, forming a potential bottom at approximately $0.54, aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. This corrective pattern appears as an ABC zigzag, indicating that the previous bullish structure is undergoing a healthy retracement rather than a full trend reversal.

The 4-hour chart reveals that ADA has been trading within a descending structure. The anticipated breakout would suggest an early sign of reversal, reinforced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) bouncing from oversold conditions. The current recovery is hinting at the early stages of a five-wave impulsive move.

ADA is now testing the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level around $0.81, a critical resistance that could dictate the next leg of movement. A break above this zone would likely propel the price toward the next key resistance at $0.93 (0.382 Fibonacci level), followed by the psychological $1.00 level. However, failure to hold above $0.81 may indicate further consolidation before the anticipated wave 3 acceleration.

Volume confirmation remains essential, as an increase in buying pressure would reinforce the likelihood of a sustained breakout. A pullback towards $0.72 (0.618 Fibonacci level) could present a healthy retest before a potential bullish continuation.

ADA Price Prediction 

On the 1-hour timeframe, the wave structure appears to be unfolding within a five-wave impulsive recovery. Wave (i) initiated a breakout from the prior corrective structure, while wave (ii) found support near $0.70, coinciding with a Fibonacci retracement level.

Wave (iii) is expected to be the strongest upward leg, with an initial target at $1.02, aligning with the 0.236 Fibonacci extension level. A short corrective wave (iv) may form around $0.90 before a final push toward $1.12 in wave (v), marking the completion of this impulsive sequence.

If momentum sustains, the final target could extend toward $1.12, a key resistance level where multiple Fibonacci confluences align. This would also coincide with previous price action where ADA faced rejection in the past.

However, the bullish scenario would be invalidated if ADA breaks below $0.70, indicating potential downside risks toward the $0.64 support zone.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: $0.81 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
• Key Resistance: $1.02 (0.236 Fibonacci extension).
• Critical Resistance: $1.12 (multi-Fibonacci confluence).
• Immediate Support: $0.72 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
• Key Support: $0.70 (wave (ii) low).
• Invalidation Zone: Below $0.64, suggesting further downside risks.