Has The Altcoin Season Started?

Altcoins are cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin (BTC). And when they perform better than the latter—individually or by combined valuation growth in U.S. dollar terms—it marks the beginning of the so-called altcoin season (or altseason).

Traders await altseasons for its ability to quickly provide humongous profits, sometimes above 1,000%. There have been five such altcoin seasons in recent years, and there’s a huge possibility that a new one has already begun entering 2025.

Altcoins Are Breaking Out of Post-Halving Consolidation Phase

The chart below showcases the cyclical nature of capital flows in cryptocurrency markets post-Bitcoin halvings, driven by investor psychology.

After a halving, Bitcoin typically absorbs most of the market attention, leading to a parabolic rise. Capital flows into altcoins once Bitcoin peaks and consolidates, sparking altcoin seasons.

Fractal analysis of the 2016 and 2020 halvings reveals striking similarities. After 2016, the total altcoin market cap surged by over 1,200%, while the 2020 cycle saw a 2,000% increase. In both cases, altcoin seasons began roughly 6-12 months after Bitcoin’s peak, as traders sought higher returns in alternative assets.

Following the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin has rallied, and current consolidation suggests a potential rotation into altcoins by mid-2025. If history repeats, the altcoin market could see exponential growth, likely driven by narratives like AI blockchains or next-gen DeFi.

Fractals suggest this next phase could deliver returns similar to previous altcoin booms.

Bitcoin Dominance Further Indicates Altcoin Season Beginning

Bitcoin dominance is a crucial indicator of shifting trends in the cryptocurrency market, signaling the transition between Bitcoin and altcoin seasons. Historical patterns highlight these cycles with precision, as shown in the chart.

During Bitcoin seasons, dominance rises steadily as Bitcoin absorbs the bulk of market liquidity. This period is characterized by cautious investor behavior, with capital primarily flowing into Bitcoin as a “safe” crypto asset. Such phases often occur after halving events, as seen in 2016 and 2020, and now following the April 2024 halving, when Bitcoin dominance has gradually climbed.

Altcoin seasons, on the other hand, begin when Bitcoin dominance declines aggressively. These periods follow Bitcoin’s price peaks as investors rotate profits into altcoins, seeking higher returns.

For example, the 2017-2018 and 2020-2021 altcoin seasons saw dominance drop sharply, accompanied by exponential gains in altcoin market caps. This fractal behavior underscores a recurring cycle: Bitcoin’s parabolic rise and stabilization give way to altcoin-led market rallies.

The current market setup suggests that 2024’s Bitcoin season is maturing, with dominance peaking near 60%. If historical patterns hold, a sharp drop in Bitcoin dominance could signal the onset of an altcoin season in 2025, potentially mirroring the explosive rallies seen in previous cycles.