Hedera (HBAR) Correction Nearing Completion: Is a Breakout to $0.45 Next?

Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) is in the midst of a corrective wave structure after completing a strong impulse wave.

The price is currently in a consolidation phase, with key Fibonacci retracement levels providing crucial support and resistance. The next move will be determined by whether HBAR holds key levels or continues its corrective wave.

HBAR Price Analysis

The daily chart of HBAR reveals a clear five-wave Elliott Wave pattern, with Wave 3 peaking around $0.39 on Dec 3. Following this high, the price entered a corrective phase, currently in Wave 4. 

The correction has taken the form of a W-X-Y structure, where price action remains range-bound between the 0.236 ($0.31) and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement ($0.21). This was confirmed after the price failed to surpass its prior high and found resistance, making a sharp downturn to the $0.30 area where it currently sits.

The current structure suggests that HBAR remains within the correction phase but is showing signs of stability above key levels. Notably, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.26 serves as an intermediate support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is declining but remains above 40, indicating that the correction is not yet over but nearing completion.

Looking at historical trends, the recent downward movement has been relatively contained, suggesting that the broader bullish trend is intact. However, the failure to break above $0.39 suggests that further downside movement is possible before the next impulsive wave begins.

If Wave 4 finds support at the lower Fibonacci retracement zones, it could provide a solid foundation for Wave 5. This final wave, based on Fibonacci extensions, could push HBAR beyond its previous high towards $0.50 or higher.

HBAR Price Prediction

On the 1-hour chart, the structure of the ongoing Wave 4 correction is more evident. The price action is forming a corrective ABC pattern, with the last leg (C) likely targeting lower Fibonacci retracement levels. The projected completion of Wave C aligns with the 0.382 at $0.259 or even slightly lower on 0.5 Fib at $0.22 where a potential reversal could occur.

The sub-wave count suggests that after an (a)-(b)-(c) pattern to the upside ended on Jan. 17 its following downtrend still has more room to the downside as the third (a)-(b)-(c) develops since Dec. 6 within the broader W-X-Y correction. This final leg of this correction might still unfold towards the $0.25-$0.22 zone. This would be a crucial accumulation phase before a strong rebound.

Should the price reach these retracement zones and find strong buying support, a bullish reversal could push HBAR into its Wave 5 impulsive move. Based on Fibonacci extensions, the next major price target lies at $0.45 (1.618 extension) and potentially up to $0.52 if momentum sustains.

If HBAR fails to maintain support at $0.22, the bearish scenario could extend towards $0.18 or even lower, delaying any bullish continuation. The RSI on the hourly chart is hovering near oversold levels, suggesting that downside pressure might soon ease, providing an opportunity for a reversal.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: $0.31 (0.236 Fibonacci level)
• Key Support: $0.26 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement)
• Critical Support: $0.22 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement)
• Short-Term Target for Wave 5: Above $0.45 if bullish momentum confirms
• Invalidation Zone: Below $0.18, signaling extended correction