How High XRP Price Can Go Following SEC vs. Ripple Settlement?

After a four-year runtime, the widely followed “SEC vs Ripple” lawsuit has reached a settlement. On Aug. 7, Judge Analise Torris ordered Ripple to pay a $125 million fine for breaking securities laws. Nonetheless, the fine is a fraction of the $2 billion penalty that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission had demanded earlier in the year.

As a result, the crypto industry is celebrating the ruling as a win for Ripple and, in turn, for XRP (XRP), which is now—legally—a non-security in the US. The sixth-largest cryptocurrency, which for years has missed crypto market bull runs due to its association with Ripple, climbed by up to 27% after the judgement, hitting $0.64.

XRP is Severely Underbought Versus Bitcoin

As noted, XRP has underperformed the broader crypto market for years. For instance, its strength versus the top cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), peaked in May 2017, when the XRP/BTC pair reached 24,544 satoshis (1 satoshi equals 0.00000001 BTC).

As of Aug. 8, it was trading for 1,066 satoshis, amonting to a circa 95% decline.

In comparison, Ethereum’s strength against Bitcoin—as measured by the ETH/BTC pair performance—has improved, as shown below.

In other words, both institutional and retail capital that maintained distance from XRP so far may have a better likelihood of entering the said cryptocurrency’s market—be it via funds or direct crypto holding strategies. Why? Because XRP is relatively underbought.

That is further visible in the net flows of XRP-focused investment products, which have attracted $21 million so far in 2024, including a modest $400,00 inflow in the week ending Aug. 3, when even Bitcoin and Ethereum funds witnessed massive outflows.

These accumulations are further evident when one looks at XRP’s supply among its richest addresses, also know as “whales.”

For instance, the XRP supply held by entities with more than 1 billion native tokens (blue) have stabilized after a strong rise in June. That coincides with the stabilization in the lower cohort of those holding 100 million—1 billion XRP tokens (teal) following a huge drop in June, indicating that whales in this group either sold off their XRP or accumulated more to enter the 1 billion—infinity cohort.

Similarly, the 10 million—100 million XRP balance cohort has absorbed the weight of the 1 million—10 million XRP cohort, indicating strong accumulation among whales in recent months despite XRP’s underwhelming price performance.

How High XRP Price Can Go?

XRP fundamentals have grown stronger after the conclusion of the SEC vs Ripple case. That will likely enable the cryptocurrency to break out of its multi-year consolidation deadlock inside what appears to be a symmetrical triangle channel.

The price continue trending inside the same pattern until the end of this year. That includes a correction phase in the coming months with the channel’s lower trendline serving as the downside target. That aligns with the 50-month exponential moving average (50-month EMA; the red wave) at around $0.52.

Conversely, a decisive breakout above the triangle’s upper trendline could mean a rally toward the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement line at around $0.97, up over 50% from the current price levels.

Macroeconomic catalysts, such as the potential interest rate cuts in the United States, may boost XRP’s upside prospects toward the $0.97 level.