How Much Can Bitcoin Price Drop Amid Global Market Rout?

Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market are reeling from U.S. President Donald Trump’s escalating global trade war. Since Sunday, April 7, Bitcoin has plunged more than 6%, dropping below the $75,000 mark for the first time in a month. It has since reclaimed the level as support.

The sell-off has wiped out over $300 billion from the total crypto market, dragging its capitalization down by roughly 12% to $2.47 trillion, returning to levels last seen when Trump clinched his election victory.

But how far could Bitcoin’s price drop? Let’s explore the sentiment and targets circulating in the industry.

Bear Pennant Breakdown Shows $71,500 BTC Price Target

Bitcoin’s latest price declines have stretched its losses to almost 32%, compared to its record high of around $110,000, established in January. And a bearish continuation pattern is suggesting more pain ahead.

So it seems, Bitcoin is nearing the breakdown stage of a prevailing bear pennant pattern, confirmed by its recent consolidation inside a triangle-like pattern following strong declines.

“In the final capitulation, they come after EVERYTHING,” one trader warned, highlighting the risk of a last-ditch shakeout. He added:

“Although $BTC has been holding up, this bear flag will likely trigger before the big bear market rally in all things. Target is 71,500-ish. I love that 65–73K zone for THE low.”

Technical indicators support this view. The RSI has struggled to regain strength, hovering below the 50 level, while the MACD weakens bullish momentum. Price action remains capped below the 50-period and 200-period moving averages, reflecting persistent downside pressure.

Furthermore, another analyst sees a bear flag forming, suggesting Bitcoin’s drop toward the $71,500–$73,000 area in the coming sessions.

Since $BTC is breaking down the bearflag the target to watch is $70-72K bit since the markets are crashing I think we wont hold $69K pic.twitter.com/jpx1VOlLLJ

— CryptoChris (@cryptochrisser) April 6, 2025

Traders Now Anticipate Five Rate Cuts in 2025

Beyond the charts, macroeconomic fears are fueling the crypto market’s volatility.

Traders have sharply increased bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year, as President Trump’s tariff-driven trade war raises the risk of a global recession.

Overnight interest-rate swaps now price up to 125 basis points of rate cuts by year-end—the equivalent of five quarter-point reductions. That’s a significant shift from last week, when markets had fully priced in only three cuts.

In an even more dramatic move, swaps are now signaling a 40% probability that the Fed could act as soon as next week, well ahead of its next scheduled policy decision on May 7.

While the probability has since eased slightly, the surge in expectations reflects just how rattled markets have become. Stock market dumps, and then Bitcoin will follow suit.

“I expect Bitcoin to dump below $75K by mid-April and then a leg towards $90K on the back of Fed rate cut rumors in May,” says market analyst Waruhiu Franklin.