Litecoin (LTC) price recored 12% on March 29, reaching a new 2024 peak just above the $110 territory. Market data shows that LTC rally to an 8-month peak was largely triggered by a recent positive ruling delivered by the US Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
With speculative traders piling on bullish bets, is LTC price on the verge of a breakout towards $150?
Litecoin’s spike is a recent statement by the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In a lawsuit against crypto exchange KuCoin, the CFTC declared Litecoin a commodity.
“KuCoin solicited and accepted orders, accepted property to margin, and operated a facility for the trading of futures, swaps, and leveraged, margined, or financed retail transactions involving digital assets that are commodities including Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), and Litecoin (LTC),” -CFTC, March 29 2024.
Recall that the crypto market had suffered a widespread downturn in June 2023, when the the SEC named dozen of altcoins as securities in a double-whammy lawsuit against Coinbase on Binance.
Hence, the CFTC statement on March 29 is crucial as it places Litecoin outside the scope of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which regulates securities and imposes stricter responsibilities on the coin issuers.
Looking at Litecoin market data trends in the wake of the CFTC ruling on March 29, it appears LTC bulls are positing their trades in anticipation of prolonged price breakout similar to XRP in July 2023.
When a US district judge Analisa Torres declared XRP not a security in July 14 2023, the Ripple-backed coin surged more than 100% in the week that followed.
In attempts to front-run a potential reoccurrence of that bullish pattern, Santiment’s funding rates chart shows that LTC derivative traders have been doubling-down on their bullish positions.
The funding rate metric tracks the percentage fees paid between LONG traders and Short position holders, which depicts real-time swings in market sentiment.
The chart above shows that LTC funding rate has been on the rise this week. It has increased by 300% from 0.02% on March 24 to 0.06% on March 29.
Positive funding rates means that long position holders are paying higher fees to short traders in expectation of booking higher profits when prices move up.
If this dominant bullish sentiment attracts new entrants, Litecoin price rally could accelerate towards $150 in the days ahead.
From an on-chain perspective, the 600% surge in LTC funding rates indicates that majority of speculators are betting on a prolonged Litecoin price rally toward $150.
However, the upper-limit Bollinger bands indicator shows that the LTC could face stiff resistance until bull form a steady support line above the $110 mark.
If the bullish speculative traders keep mounting fresh capital inflows, a decisive Litecoin price breakout towards $150 could be on the cards.
However, on the flip side, the bears could regain momentum if a market downturn sends LTC price spiraling below $90.
But as seen above, the bull could regroup and the $91.65 territory, and possibly trigger a rebound.
Ibrahim Ajibade Ademolawa is a seasoned research analyst with a background in Commercial Banking and Web3 startups, specializing in DeFi and TradFi analysis. He holds a B.A. in Economics and is pursuing an MSc in Blockchain.