Lululemon Earnings, GDP Forecast, and Jobless Claims to Guide Market Sentiment

U.S. Economic Data and Lululemon Earnings Guide Market Sentiment

Traders are positioning ahead of a packed Thursday economic calendar and a high-profile earnings report from Lululemon Athletica. The Commerce Department’s final estimate for fourth-quarter U.S. GDP is due shortly, with consensus expectations for annualized growth of 2.3%, matching prior estimates. Initial jobless claims, pending home sales, and wholesale inventory figures also land today, offering fresh signals on consumer demand and labor market resilience.

Focus on Labor and Housing Indicators

Economists expect initial jobless claims to come in at 225,000, slightly above last week’s 223,000 print. Any upside surprise may reignite concerns over cooling labor demand, particularly as the Fed continues to monitor job data for rate path guidance. Meanwhile, pending home sales are projected to rise 0.9% month-over-month in February after January’s sharp 4.6% decline, signaling potential stabilization in housing demand. Wholesale inventories are forecast to rise 0.7%, a slight pullback from January’s 0.8%, suggesting continued supply chain normalization.

Fed Commentary and Market Impact

Traders will also listen closely to Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin’s speech for any signals on policy direction. With rate cut expectations gradually moderating, any hawkish lean from Barkin could dampen near-term risk appetite, especially in rate-sensitive equity sectors.

Lululemon Earnings in the Spotlight

On the corporate front, Lululemon Athletica reports fourth-quarter results after the bell. Wall Street expects EPS of $5.87 on revenue of $3.6 billion, both up over 11% year-over-year. The company pre-released stronger guidance in January, and analysts largely expect results to meet or exceed those revised targets. Brick-and-mortar sales are estimated to have grown in the low-20% range, while e-commerce contributions hover near 49% of total revenue.

Despite positive near-term expectations, concerns persist around Lululemon’s 2024 outlook. Foot traffic in February declined 7.7% year-over-year, lagging peers like Alo Yoga, raising caution about domestic momentum. Analysts are split on the outlook: some expect beatable, conservative full-year guidance, while others flag competitive headwinds, especially in North America, which accounts for 70% of LULU’s revenue base.

Market Forecast: Neutral-to-Bullish Short-Term Bias

While macro data and Fed commentary may introduce modest volatility, current expectations are balanced and unlikely to shift the broader trend unless significantly off-consensus.

For Lululemon, strong Q4 results could lift shares short-term, but forward guidance will be the key driver. A neutral-to-bullish bias is warranted in the near term, contingent on stable macro data and supportive corporate earnings delivery.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.