MSTR and MARA Elliott Wave Analysis: Bitcoin’s Recovery Signals Bullish Momentum

MSTR Price Analysis

The 4-hour chart of MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) showcases a completed five-wave Elliott Wave impulse pattern followed by an ABC corrective structure. The corrective wave ended near $307.56, coinciding with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the previous impulse. Following the corrective completion, the price broke out of a descending channel, signaling a potential bullish reversal.

Currently, MSTR is trading near $360, with resistance at $380.16, the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. A breakout above this resistance would confirm the bullish sentiment and likely validate the continuation of a new impulsive wave structure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows improving momentum, further supporting the bullish case. However, failure to break above $380 could lead to a pullback, potentially revisiting the $342.85 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement) or $329.36 (0.236 Fibonacci retracement) support levels.

In the near term, MSTR appears to be initiating Wave 3 of a larger impulsive structure. Key Fibonacci extension levels for Wave 3 are $425.05 (1.272 extension), $457.01 (1.618 extension), and $492.29 (2.0 extension). Momentum suggests a strong likelihood of reaching these targets if resistance at $380 is decisively broken.

Conversely, if the price fails to sustain above $353, it may re-enter a corrective phase. Invalidation of the bullish scenario occurs below $307.56. Traders should watch for RSI overbought signals near key resistance levels to assess potential reversals.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: $380.16 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement).
• Major Resistance: $399.93 (1.0 Fibonacci retracement) and $425.05 (1.272 extension).
• Critical Resistance: $457.01 (1.618 Fibonacci extension).
• Immediate Support: $353.75 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
• Key Support: $342.85 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement).
• Invalidation Zone: Below $307.56, invalidating the bullish scenario.

MARA Price Analysis

The 4-hour chart for Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) highlights a completed five-wave impulsive Elliott Wave structure at $34, followed by a complex WXYXZ corrective pattern.

Currently, the price is in the final stages of the Z wave, with support near $17.24 (0.236 Fibonacci retracement) and potential for a deeper move to $13.26 (0.0 Fibonacci retracement), marking the end of the correction.

The price has recently been rejected from $18.19, corresponding to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement from the preceding wave. Resistance lies overhead at $21.70 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement) and $23.69 (0.618 retracement), which must be cleared for the bullish scenario to take shape.

RSI is neutral, showing no significant overbought or oversold conditions, indicating consolidation within the corrective phase.

The chart structure suggests two potential scenarios. If the price breaks above $23.69, MARA could enter a new impulsive wave targeting $26.53 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement) and $30.14 (1.0 retracement). This would confirm the end of the correction and initiate a new upward trend.

Alternatively, failure to breach the $21.70 resistance could lead to further downside, with the Z wave extending toward $13.26. This bearish scenario would represent a complete correction and provide a potential accumulation zone for buyers.

Traders should watch for confirmation of either scenario through a decisive breakout or rejection at resistance. A sustained close above $23.69 would confirm bullish momentum, while a break below $17.24 signals further downside.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: $21.70 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
• Key Resistance: $23.69 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
• Critical Resistance: $26.53 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement) and $30.14 (1.0 Fibonacci retracement).
• Immediate Support: $18.19 (current bounce level near 0.382 Fibonacci retracement).
• Key Support: $17.24 (0.236 Fibonacci retracement).
• Critical Support: $13.26 (0.0 Fibonacci retracement, completion of Z wave).
• Invalidation Zone: Below $13.26, signaling extended bearish potential.