The US indices that I follow all look similar, in the sense that the markets are likely to at least attempt a bounce in this area. At this point, the oversold condition might be an opportunity.
The Nasdaq 100 initially plunged a bit during the trading session on Tuesday but has turned around to show signs of life. It looks like we are trying to hang out at the 19,500 level. While I’m not overly bullish on the Nasdaq 100, I do recognize that we are really oversold at this point.
So, I believe it’s probably a scenario where we are going to get a bit of a bounce. If the market does bounce from here, the 20,000 level above will likely be the target. If we can break above the 20,000 level, then the 200-day EMA is hanging around just above there, offering a bit of resistance as well.
The Dow Jones 30 looks as if it’s trying to hang on to the 42,000 level and the 200-day EMA, so a break higher from here could lead to good things, at least in the short term. We are essentially testing the bottom of a massive M pattern, and if we break down below the lows in the last couple of days, I think the bottom falls out of the Dow Jones 30.
I really think we’re at a major inflection point here that could determine the next several weeks, if not months. A bounce from here, though, at the very least, does make a certain amount of sense, considering that it would be a bit of a relief rally after the massive chaos we have seen.
The S&P 500 looks like it is hanging around the 5600 level and trying to bounce. The question now is whether it will drive itself back up to the 200-day EMA. I think that might be where we are heading, but we need some type of momentum, and therefore, we will just have to see if we start to pick up. If we do pick up, then at this point, I think you’ve got a situation where the 200-day EMA gets targeted and then the 5800 level. A breakdown below the lows of the session could lead to further weakness, perhaps as low as 5400.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.