A volatile August sees Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 futures signaling cautious market moves ahead.
Investors are gearing up for a tense close to a tough August as stock futures indicate minimal shifts. Despite the Dow Jones Industrial Average nudging up by a mere point, futures for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reflect slight declines of 0.01% and 0.05% respectively. This comes on the heels of a brighter Monday where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ascended by 0.6% and 0.8%.
Wall Street saw a rare spike on Monday, primarily buoyed by gains in 3M and Goldman Sachs. Nvidia emerged as a notable performer with its shares surging by 1.78%, making it the most traded stock in the S&P 500. Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell about potential interest rate adjustments to control inflation contributed to the positive investor sentiment. This momentary upswing, however, does not mask the turbulent month; the Dow is set to close August with a dip of 2.8%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq project steeper declines of 3.4% and 4.5%.
Anticipation builds around forthcoming economic data, especially the personal consumption expenditures price index, due on Thursday. This index is the Federal Reserve’s chosen metric for inflation. Additionally, the non-farm payrolls data set for Friday is also generating buzz. Both these data points will offer crucial insights into the Federal Reserve’s prospective interest rate strategies.
U.S. Treasury yields are in retreat mode as stakeholders await crucial economic updates regarding inflation and the labor market’s status. The previous JOLTS report highlighted close to 10 million job vacancies, a drop from an all-time high of 12 million, with new data expected to mirror these figures.
Given the month’s turbulence, cautious optimism seems to be the dominant sentiment. Investors are keenly observing the interplay of corporate earnings, economic data, and Federal Reserve cues to navigate an unpredictable market. The short-term forecast appears bearish, suggesting investors brace for more volatility.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.