The Dow Jones Industrial Average led Wall Street higher on Tuesday, driven by robust earnings reports and unexpected strength in retail sales data. This positive momentum suggests a resilient U.S. economy, while investors remain optimistic about potential interest rate cuts.
At 15:00 GMT, The Dow is trading 40794.98, up 583.26 or +1.45%. The S&P 500 Index is at 5656.23, up 25.01 or +0.44% and the Nasdaq 100 Index is at 18481.06, up 8.50 or +0.05%.
UnitedHealth Group’s shares surged 4.3% following an impressive second-quarter profit beat. This performance pushed the Dow and the S&P 500 Health Care index to all-time highs, highlighting the strength of the healthcare sector.
Bank of America’s stock jumped 3.6% after reporting better-than-expected profits and an upbeat forecast for net interest income. This positive news helped drive the S&P 500 Financials index to a record high. However, the banking sector saw mixed results, with Morgan Stanley and Charles Schwab facing challenges in their earnings reports.
June’s retail sales data surprised analysts by remaining unchanged, contrary to expectations of a 0.3% decline. Additionally, retail sales excluding automobiles rose 0.4%, further indicating consumer resilience. This unexpected strength in consumer spending supports the view of a robust U.S. economy.
Despite the strong economic data, traders continue to price in a high probability of a rate cut by September. The CME’s FedWatch tool indicates a 100% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s recent comments have been interpreted as dovish, reinforcing market expectations.
The short-term outlook for U.S. equities is bullish. The combination of strong corporate earnings, resilient consumer spending, and persistent rate cut expectations is likely to support further gains. Investors should watch for a potential broadening of the rally into small-cap stocks, as evidenced by the Russell 2000 index reaching its highest level since January 2022. However, traders should remain cautious of potential volatility in tech stocks, which have been primary drivers of the market’s performance this year.
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures powered higher to a record high on Tuesday. However, some are concerned about valuation because the market is so far above the 50-day moving average support at 39655. The makes it vulnerable to a near-term correction, but based on today’s price action, the uptrend is still strong.
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.