Nasdaq 100: Nvidia at Technical Crossroads – Stock Market Awaits Key Signal

Nvidia Faces Key Technical Test as Earnings Approach

Nvidia (NVDA) is at a critical technical juncture late Tuesday, trading just below the 50-day moving average after a strong rally. The stock is currently at $132.44, hovering near resistance at $135.09. Traders are closely watching this level for a potential breakout, which could trigger further gains. A rejection, however, may lead to renewed downside pressure.

Will Nvidia Overcome This Technical Resistance?

The 50-day moving average at $135.09 is a widely watched technical level that often dictates short-term sentiment. Nvidia’s stock is also contending with Fibonacci retracement levels, particularly the 50% mark at $133.07 and the 61.8% level at $137.80. These levels serve as potential inflection points where traders gauge buying and selling pressure.

If Nvidia clears $137.80 with strong volume, the next upside target could be the recent high of $153.13. On the downside, failure to break through could bring the 200-day moving average at $124.04 back into focus.

Should Traders Buy Before Earnings?

Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis is bullish on Nvidia ahead of its Feb. 26 earnings report. He expects a strong performance, citing continued demand outpacing supply for Nvidia’s high-end chips. Concerns surrounding the company’s next-generation Blackwell chip have weighed on the stock, but Lipacis believes these worries are overblown.

He argues that even if the B100 chip faces delays, customers will continue buying the existing H100 models, mitigating any revenue impact. His “tactical outperform” call suggests he anticipates a favorable earnings-driven move.

AI Competition and Market Sentiment

Nvidia has faced recent skepticism due to advances in artificial intelligence, specifically concerns that firms could develop cheaper alternatives to its GPUs. Reports surrounding DeepSeek, a Chinese AI software firm, suggested that AI models could become more cost-efficient, raising questions about future GPU demand.

However, Lipacis remains confident that Nvidia’s ecosystem is too advanced for competitors to displace it in the near term. He argues that hyperscale cloud providers still favor Nvidia’s platform due to its robust software ecosystem and development tools, estimating the company remains 5-10 years ahead of potential rivals.

What’s Next for Nvidia?

With earnings approaching, Nvidia’s price action at the 50-day moving average will be a key indicator of market sentiment. A clean breakout could attract momentum buyers and set up a retest of $153.13, while a failure could bring renewed pressure toward $124.04.

Traders will also be watching for management’s outlook on AI demand, chip supply, and the rollout of Blackwell. Any positive surprise could reignite bullish momentum, while signs of slowing growth may weigh on the stock further.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.