S&P 500 Index's quiet open continues growth trend, as e-commerce surges and investors weigh Fed policy against steady yields.
Wall Street opened with little change on Monday, as major indices looked to extend a four-week winning streak. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all showed marginal movements in early trading.
In the stock market, e-commerce players saw a boost during Cyber Monday, with Amazon and Shopify experiencing notable premarket gains. Additionally, Teva Pharmaceutical’s shares climbed following a UBS upgrade, while Mondelez also rose on RBC’s rating upgrade.
Despite the stock market rally, concerns persist about weakening consumer spending, a trend possibly influenced by the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes. Recent data, including a spike in Black Friday e-commerce spending, offer mixed signals about consumer behavior in the face of tightening credit conditions.
Steady U.S. Treasury yields indicate market anticipation for upcoming economic data, including the October personal consumption expenditures price index. This data, along with new home sales figures and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index, will provide insights into the economy’s response to sustained high interest rates.
Investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s stance, with the expectation that the central bank may be nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle. Upcoming remarks by Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, are awaited for indications of future policy directions. The final Fed meeting of the year could offer further clarity on interest rate trajectories, amidst market speculation of potential rate cuts.
Based on the current market indicators, including steady Treasury yields and mixed consumer spending data, the short-term forecast for Wall Street appears cautiously bullish. Investors’ anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s policy direction, especially regarding interest rate hikes, may continue to influence market sentiment positively. However, this bullish outlook is tempered by uncertainties in economic data and consumer spending trends.
The E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are currently trading at 4559.00, positioned just below the minor resistance level of 4562.50.
This price is significantly above both the 200-day and 50-day moving averages, set at 4300.71 and 4372.68 respectively, indicating a bullish trend.
The index’s current standing above the main support level of 4424.50 further reinforces this bullish stance. However, being close to the minor resistance level suggests some potential for resistance in the short term.
The overall market sentiment for the E-mini S&P 500 Index futures appears to be bullish, given its position relative to key moving averages and support levels, despite the proximity to minor resistance.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.