Nasdaq Index, Dow Jones, S&P 500 News: Investors Bracing for Impact of GDP

Key Points

• Mixed performance in stock futures as GDP report looms.
• Boeing and Tesla’s stock movements influence market trends.
• Upcoming GDP data crucial for short-term market forecast.
• Humana to report before the bell, along with Southwest Airlines and American Airlines. 

Market Overview

Stock futures indexes are exhibiting a mixed performance as traders anticipate the release of the U.S. GDP report and a series of earnings reports. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are on a five-day rise, largely driven by Netflix’s post-earnings surge. In contrast, the Dow dipped slightly by 0.3%.

At 11:35 GMT, Dow futures are trading 38081.00, up 102.00 or +0.27%. S&P 500 Index futures are at 4901.75, up 3.75 or +0.08% and Nasdaq-100 Index futures are trading 17620.25, down 0.75 or 0.00%.

Boeing’s Impact on the Dow

The Dow Jones Industrial Average would be 308 points higher if Boeing’s shares remained stable instead of dropping over 17% due to the 737 Max 9 safety concerns. The Dow’s unique share price-weighted system magnifies the impact of individual stock movements, as seen with Boeing and UnitedHealth Group. If both companies’ stocks were unchanged, the Dow would be trading around 38,200.

Tesla and IBM Performance

Tesla’s shares fell nearly 6% premarket after disappointing fourth-quarter results and a subdued vehicle volume growth forecast for 2024. Conversely, IBM’s shares climbed over 7% following earnings and revenue that surpassed expectations, showcasing resilience in a volatile economic environment.

Earnings and Economic Data Watch

Investors are closely monitoring upcoming earnings reports from major companies like Humana, Southwest Airlines, American Airlines, Intel, T-Mobile, and Western Digital. Additionally, the fourth-quarter GDP data is highly anticipated, expected to show a growth slowdown to 2%, which could significantly influence market directions.

Short-Term Market Forecast

Despite the mixed market signals and economic uncertainties, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic. The S&P 500 target is ambitiously set at 5,400 by year-end, with a further increase to 6,000 next year. However, the rapid rise in stock prices warrants attention, suggesting a potential overextension in the short term.

Technical Analysis

The E-mini S&P 500 Index is trading nearly flat early Thursday as investors take a breather ahead of key economic data and earnings reports.

Although the main trend is up. the index appears to be susceptible to a near-term correction given the distance between the current price at 4899.50 and the nearest support at 4808.25.

Other than yesterday’s high at 4933.25, there is no minor or major resistance so the index could continue to grind higher over the near-term. However, the afforementioned support at 4808.25 could give way to a test of the 50-day moving average at 4726.26 if enough selling pressue materializes.