S&P 500 futures stumble as Wall Street eyes jobs report, tech stocks cool, and uncertainty over Fed rate cut expectations weigh on market trends.
The December jobs report, anticipated to show 170,000 new jobs, is the day’s focal point. Markets are hoping for a ‘Goldilocks’ number that balances economic growth with Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. A figure too high or too low could alter the anticipated trajectory of rate cuts.
Currently, the market consensus is that the Fed might begin rate cuts as early as March, aiming for a 1.5 percentage point reduction by the end of 2024. However, recent Fed communications suggest a more cautious approach, and a strong jobs report could delay these cuts.
The tech sector’s lagging performance underscores the market’s sensitivity to interest rates. Investors are weighing the implications of potential rate cuts, balancing the fight against inflation with potential economic softness. The jobs report will also be scrutinized for wage growth and unemployment rate trends, providing a broader picture of the labor market’s health.
The E-mini S&P 500 Index, positioned at 4714.00, shows signs of potentially rolling over to the downside. Currently, it trades above the 50-day moving average at 4598.59 and the minor support level at 4562.50. These levels form a critical support cluster, suggesting they may be the next target if the downward trend continues.
The index’s stance above the 200-day moving average at 4482.72 still indicates a general bullish trend, but the proximity to the 50-day moving average and minor support highlights these as key areas to watch. If the index breaks below this support cluster, it could signal a stronger bearish shift in the market sentiment.
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.