S&P 500 rises, Nasdaq falls: Retail sales dip hits consumer stocks, tech struggles, crypto gains.
U.S. stock indexes are currently experiencing a mixed trade, as investors are actively evaluating a slew of economic reports. The focus is on balancing the implications of recent high U.S. consumer inflation against weaker retail sales data, in the context of the Federal Reserve’s likely interest rate changes.
At 15:00 GMT, Dow Futures are trading 38667.00, up 173.00 or +0.45%. S&P 500 Index Futures are at 5026.75, up 8.75 or +0.17% and Nasdaq-100 Index Futures are trading 17857.25, down 23.75 or -0.13%.
Retail sales have unexpectedly fallen by 0.8% in January, a steeper decline than the 0.3% forecasted.
This significant drop, especially in sectors like building materials and motor vehicle parts, is stirring concerns about consumer spending power in a high inflation environment. In contrast, January’s inflation figures showed a moderate increase, hinting at economic resilience.
In the employment arena, there’s a brighter picture. Unemployment claims have declined to 212,000, suggesting a robust job market. This strength in employment is a crucial factor underpinning consumer confidence and spending, which are vital for sustained economic growth.
In response to these mixed economic signals, the stock market is exhibiting cautious optimism. Major U.S. stock indexes are adjusting as investors weigh the potential impacts on corporate earnings and future growth. Specific sectors and companies are reacting variably to the economic data:
Looking ahead, the market is trading more on economic growth and earnings projections than on interest rate and inflation concerns. With the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions looming, short-term market prospects appear cautiously bullish. The strength in the labor market and manufacturing, coupled with resilient consumer spending, are key factors supporting this outlook. However, investors should brace for volatility as the market assimilates these varied economic inputs.
E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index futures are drifting lower on Thursday, bucking the trend of the S&P 500 and the Dow.
Remember that the index is still under the control of the potentially bearish closing price reversal top on Monday, and will be until buyers take out 18121.50.
Monday’s high at 18121.50 and Tuesday’s low at 17542.00 has formed a small trading range. Nonetheless, its retracement zone at 17831.75 to 17900.13 is very significant to the near-term direction.
Look for a bullish trend to develop on a sustained move over 17900.13 and for a bearish tone to develop on a sustained move under 17831.75.
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.