NASDAQ Index, SP500, Dow Jones Forecasts: Week Ahead Packed with Market-Moving Events

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Updated: Jan 14, 2024, 12:59 GMT+00:00

Amid the WEF Annual Meetings, upcoming US retail sales, and manufacturing data will likely steer the direction of SPX, DOW, and NASDAQ this week.

This week’s WEF Annual Meetings could significantly sway global market sentiment, impacting SPX, DOW, and NASDAQ.
Positive US retail and manufacturing data mid-week could boost investor confidence, lifting major US indices.
Friday’s UoM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations could shape Federal Reserve policy perceptions, affecting market trends.

Quick Fundamental Outlook

The upcoming week is packed with significant events that could impact major U.S. indices like the S&P 500 (SPX), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW), and NASDAQ. The week is dominated by the World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meetings, which is starting on Monday and could influence market sentiment globally.

On Tuesday, the Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected, which, being a key indicator of economic health, could sway market optimism or pessimism, affecting these indices. Negative readings may lead to market bearishness.

Wednesday brings US Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales data, alongside Industrial Production figures. Retail sales are a primary gauge of consumer spending, and industrial production reflects the real economic activity. Positive numbers in these indicators typically signal a robust economy, which could bolster investor confidence, potentially lifting the SPX, DOW, and NASDAQ.

Thursday focuses on Unemployment Claims, Building Permits, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Low unemployment claims usually indicate a strong labor market, a positive sign for the economy and markets. Building permits reflect future construction activity, while the Philly Fed Index, a measure of manufacturing health, can impact market mood.

Finally, Friday features the Prelim University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment and Existing Home Sales data, along with Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations. The Consumer Sentiment Index offers insights into consumer confidence, a key driver of economic growth, and can influence market trends.

Existing Home Sales provide a snapshot of the real estate market, a significant component of the economy. Higher figures in these metrics often boost investor sentiment, potentially benefiting the SPX, DOW, and NASDAQ.

SPX SP500 Price Forecast

SPX SP500 – Chart

The S&P 500 (SPX) concluded the week on a positive note, up 1.84% at a closing price of $4,783. The index’s pivot point lies at $4,763, with key resistance levels at $4,795, $4,819, and $4,844. Support levels are set at $4,738, $4,716, and $4,680.

Both the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $4,624 and the 200-Day EMA at $4,405 indicate an overarching bullish trend. The S&P 500 shows an ascending triangle pattern, with a notable resistance at $4,795, potentially a double top pattern.

This structure hints at a bullish breakout possibility, though the recent Doji candle signals a fragile uptrend. Traders should watch for a break above $4,795 for a bullish confirmation, with the immediate outlook remaining positive above the pivot point of $4,763.

Dow Price Forecast

DJIA Chart

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW) ended the week on a downward note, closing at $53.37, marking a decline of 2.65%. In the daily chart, the pivot point is set at $52.76, with the index facing immediate resistance at $53.95, followed by $54.65 and $55.58. Support levels are positioned at $51.88, $50.82, and $49.92.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $52.95, and the 200-Day EMA is at $52.73, both hovering around the current price level. This proximity indicates potential for movement in either direction.

Chart analysis reveals an upward channel, providing support to the Dow around $52.75. Notably, a golden cross appears to be forming, with the 50 EMA crossing the 200 EMA around $52.65, a bullish signal in traditional technical analysis.

Given these indicators, the short-term outlook for the Dow appears bullish, particularly if it sustains above the $52.65 mark.

NASDAQ Price Forecast

NASDAQ – Chart

The NASDAQ concluded the week on an upbeat note, registering a 3.09% increase to close at 14,972. On the daily chart, the index has a pivot point set at $15,050, facing immediate resistance at $15,155, with further resistance at $15,360 and $15,527. Support levels are identified at $14,800, $14,639, and $14,486.

Technical analysis reveals that the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $14,439 and the 200-Day EMA at $13,549, both below the current price, indicating a prevailing bullish trend.

However, the index is facing a downward trendline resistance at around $15,000, which aligns with a double top pattern formation. The presence of a Doji candlestick pattern below this resistance level suggests a potential weakening of the bullish momentum.

Given these indicators, the NASDAQ’s immediate outlook appears bearish if it remains below the $15,000 mark.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.