Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow: FOMC & CPI Data Could Shift Markets, Eyeing Inflation at 2.9%

Key Insights

• FOMC Speech & CPI Data Key: Monday’s FOMC speech and Tuesday’s CPI data could sway US stock indices, indicating potential shifts in Fed policy.
• Midweek Manufacturing & Retail Focus: Negative manufacturing forecasts contrast with slight retail sales optimism, influencing midweek market sentiment.
• End-of-Week Economic Indicators: Core PPI, building permits, and consumer sentiment data to provide late-week market direction clues for SPX, DOW, and NASDAQ.

Quick Fundamental Outlook

In the coming week, US stock indices like the SPX, DOW, and NASDAQ are poised for potential volatility in response to a series of economic indicators and Federal Reserve members’ speeches.

On Monday, FOMC Member Barkin’s speech could provide insights into the Fed’s monetary policy direction, potentially impacting investor sentiment. The release of Core CPI and CPI data on Tuesday is crucial, with expectations set at 0.3% and 0.2% month-over-month, respectively, and the CPI year-over-year forecast at 2.9%. These inflation figures are pivotal for market movements, as they influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.

Midweek, attention shifts to retail sales and manufacturing indexes, with Core Retail Sales expected to show a modest increase of 0.1% month-over-month. However, the Empire State Manufacturing Index and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index forecast negative figures, suggesting challenges in the manufacturing sector. Unemployment claims, another vital indicator, are anticipated to hover around 217K, offering insights into the labor market’s health.

By week’s end, focus will turn to the Core PPI and PPI, alongside building permits and the Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations.