Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: China’s $1.4 Trillion Stimulus Falls Short for Demand Boost

Market Overview

Geopolitical tensions and market uncertainty are keeping oil prices under pressure, with both crude benchmarks falling over 5% in recent sessions. Although China’s new $1.4 trillion debt package aims to ease economic strains, it is seen as insufficient to fuel a substantial demand boost.

Meanwhile, the oil market awaits OPEC’s upcoming report, which may further adjust demand forecasts downward through 2025, potentially increasing supply pressures.

The recent shift toward contango in oil futures suggests ample near-term supply. Additionally, a stronger U.S. dollar is adding weight to oil prices, making them more costly for international buyers.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) prices are trading at $3.05, slightly down by 0.26%. Currently, $2.96 acts as a key pivot point, making it a crucial level to watch.

If prices dip below this mark, we might see a more bearish trend, with support levels around $2.88, $2.84, and potentially down to $2.80.

Conversely, a break above the $2.96 pivot could renew some buying interest, with immediate resistance at $3.00, followed by $3.05 and $3.10.

The 50-day EMA is holding at $2.80, adding a layer of support, while the 200-day EMA at $2.68 reflects a broader bullish foundation if prices stabilize above these moving averages.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

USOIL is trading at $71.60, down 0.45%, as sellers keep the pressure on. The $72.06 pivot point is critical here: staying below this level suggests more downside, with support at $71.21, $70.78, and $70.25 likely to come into play.

On the flip side, a move above $72.06 could spark some buying interest, targeting resistance levels at $72.57, $73.12, and $73.87.

The 50-day EMA sits at $73.59, while the 200-day EMA is at $74.12, both reflecting a bearish trend over the medium to long term. Overall, the momentum leans bearish unless prices can reclaim levels above the pivot.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

UKOIL is trading at $71.60, down 0.45%, as sellers keep the pressure on. The $72.06 pivot point is critical here: staying below this level suggests more downside, with support at $71.21, $70.78, and $70.25 likely to come into play.

On the flip side, a move above $72.06 could spark some buying interest, targeting resistance levels at $72.57, $73.12, and $73.87.

The 50-day EMA sits at $73.59, while the 200-day EMA is at $74.12, both reflecting a bearish trend over the medium to long term. Overall, the momentum leans bearish unless prices can reclaim levels above the pivot.