Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: China’s $411B Stimulus Boosts Demand Outlook

Market Overview

Oil prices rose in thin holiday trading, supported by China’s $411 billion fiscal stimulus plan aimed at boosting consumption and economic recovery. A projected decline in U.S. crude inventories further lifted market sentiment, reflecting steady demand.

Analysts noted that geopolitical tensions are adding upward pressure to energy prices, with concerns over potential disruptions to global supply chains. A Reuters poll estimates a 1.9-million-barrel drop in crude inventories for the week ending Dec. 20, signaling robust consumption.

Meanwhile, Libya’s crude output surpassed 2024 targets, balancing supply-side pressures. Markets remain cautiously optimistic as global demand and supply dynamics continue to evolve.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) prices are under pressure, trading at $3.38, down 3.23% on the day, as bearish momentum takes hold in the short term. The price is below the key pivot point of $3.82, signaling potential weakness unless a recovery is seen. Immediate support rests at $3.62, with stronger backing at $3.43, while resistance levels are noted at $4.05 and $4.24.

The 50-day EMA at $3.69 and the 200-day EMA at $3.41 indicate a bearish bias, with the price stuck between these key moving averages. If Natural Gas fails to reclaim the $3.82 pivot, selling pressure could accelerate, but a break above this level could reignite a bullish trend toward $4.05.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is trading at $70.15, essentially flat on the day, reflecting cautious market sentiment. The price is teetering just below the pivot point at $70.38, signaling a bearish undertone unless a breakout above this level materializes. Immediate support is holding at $69.32, with further downside risk toward $68.42 if sellers gain momentum.

On the upside, resistance at $71.46 could cap gains, with $72.50 marking the next target for a bullish move. The 50-day EMA at $69.66 and the 200-day EMA at $69.47 highlight near-term consolidation, but the overall trend leans slightly bearish. A decisive move above $70.38 could shift momentum to the upside, while a failure to hold support may spark further declines.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL) is trading at $73.61, holding steady with minimal movement. The pivot point at $73.33 is a key level to watch—trading above it signals bullish momentum, while a break below could invite selling pressure. Immediate resistance sits at $74.23, with the next hurdle at $74.87, which could serve as short-term targets for buyers.

On the downside, support is holding at $72.75, with $71.98 providing a deeper safety net.

The 50-day EMA at $73.11 and the 200-day EMA at $73.03 indicate near-term consolidation with a slight bullish tilt. If UKOIL sustains levels above $73.33, further upside is likely, but slipping below this level could shift the trend bearish.