Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: China’s Sluggish Demand Weighs on Price Recovery

Market Overview

Natural gas and oil prices face upward pressure as escalating geopolitical tensions heighten market uncertainty. Concerns about potential disruptions to energy infrastructure have prompted analysts to warn of elevated oil price risks, even as Russian exports remain largely unaffected.

However, weak demand signals from China and forecasts of a global oil surplus continue to weigh on sentiment. China’s refinery throughput dropped 4.6% in October, reflecting a slowdown in economic activity.

Meanwhile, U.S. rig counts hit their lowest since July, highlighting reduced domestic production. As financial markets grapple with Federal Reserve policy uncertainties, the energy sector remains a focal point for risk-driven price movements.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) prices are trading at $3.11, up 2.91% on the day, signaling some bullish momentum. However, the broader trend remains capped by a downward trendline.

The immediate pivot point at $2.94 serves as a critical level—holding above this suggests a stronger bullish bias, with resistance levels at $3.02 and $3.07 before testing $3.12. A break below $2.94 could shift momentum, with key support levels at $2.84 and $2.77.

Technically, the 50-day EMA at $2.85 is supporting the recent gains, while the 200-day EMA at $2.76 reinforces a strong foundation. For now, traders should watch for a sustained break above $3.12 to confirm further upside or a retreat below $2.94 to reassess bearish risks.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

USOIL is trading at $66.90, down 2.43%, as bearish momentum continues to dominate the short-term outlook. The pivot point at $67.48 is a key level to watch—trading below this reinforces a bearish sentiment, with immediate support at $66.42 and deeper levels at $65.91 and $65.39.

On the upside, resistance lies at $68.22, with further hurdles at $69.17 and $69.90.

A bearish engulfing candle on the 4-hour chart signals potential for further downside, especially with the price struggling to recover above the 50-day EMA at $68.43 and the 200-day EMA at $69.65.

A break above $67.48 could signal a shift, but until then, sellers appear firmly in control.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

UKOIL (Brent) is trading at $71.05, up a modest 0.08%, as the market struggles to find clear direction. The pivot point at $71.43 remains the key level to watch—prices below this level indicate a bearish bias, while a breakout above could open the door to resistance at $71.90, with additional levels at $72.41 and $72.94.

Immediate support lies at $70.69, followed by $70.25 and $69.88, offering potential downside targets if selling pressure resumes. The price is currently below the 50-day EMA at $72.03 and the 200-day EMA at $73.25, reinforcing a cautious outlook.

Traders should keep an eye on whether UK Oil reclaims $71.43 to establish a more bullish tone or slips further below support.