Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: China’s Stimulus and Middle East Tensions Tighten Supply

Market Overview

WTI crude oil prices hovered around $71.4 as markets weighed China’s recent economic stimulus measures and rising geopolitical tensions. China, the world’s largest oil importer, announced its biggest economic intervention in four years, boosting demand expectations.

However, concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East and US Gulf, due to escalating conflict risks and hurricanes, added uncertainty. US crude inventories saw a sharp decline of 4.339 million barrels, well above expectations, further tightening supply.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) prices are hovering at $2.84, a modest 0.53% increase, suggesting a bullish sentiment in the near term. The key pivot point at $2.54 is critical for traders.

A sustained move above this level signals strength, with immediate resistance at $2.59, followed by $2.63 and $2.67.

Conversely, support is found at $2.50, with deeper levels at $2.46 and $2.42, which aligns with the 200-day EMA of $2.42, providing a strong floor.

The 50-day EMA at $2.56 confirms upward momentum, reinforcing the bullish case above $2.54.

However, a break below this pivot could trigger sharp selling, making this level a key area for both bulls and bears alike.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) prices are currently at $71.11, down 0.57%, and are teetering near a pivotal technical level.

The key pivot point is $71.22, and staying above this could maintain the bullish momentum. Immediate resistance sits at $71.64, with further upside targets at $72.32 and $72.85.

On the downside, immediate support is at $70.90, with deeper levels at $70.55 and $70.08, closely aligning with the 200-day EMA of $70.48.

The 50-day EMA at $71.23 suggests prices are near equilibrium, but a break below $71.22 could trigger sharper selling pressure.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL) is trading at $74.78, up 0.49%, hovering just below the key pivot point of $74.79. This level is critical for the market’s direction.

Immediate resistance lies at $75.19, with further levels to watch at $75.85 and $76.27. Support comes in at $74.46, followed by $74.13 and $73.66.

The latter is close to the 200-day EMA of $73.95, a strong long-term support zone.

The 50-day EMA sits right at $74.78, reinforcing a potential breakout. Interestingly, the $74.75 level aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, often a key bounce-off point.

Holding above this could spark a bullish rally, but a dip below may trigger sharp selling pressure.