Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: China’s Weak Demand and Strong Dollar Weigh on Market

Market Overview

Natural gas and oil markets are experiencing downward pressure as geopolitical tensions and production forecasts reshape investor sentiment. Oil prices slipped early Thursday, largely reversing prior gains amid concerns over weak demand growth and rising global production.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) recently revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 down to 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd), while the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its supply projections.

China’s sluggish demand remains a key factor in softening prices, and a stronger U.S. dollar is adding to the downward pressure on oil and gas.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is trading around $3.10, down slightly by 0.22%. After completing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, it now aims for the 38.2% level near $2.94.

The key pivot point is $2.95, which serves as a critical dividing line between bullish and bearish sentiment. If prices hold above $2.95, there’s potential for upward movement, targeting resistance at $2.98, followed by $3.02 and $3.06.

However, a slip below $2.95 could lead to a sharper decline, with immediate support levels at $2.92, $2.87, and $2.83.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

USOIL is trading at $67.90, down 0.14% as it hovers just below its pivot point at $68.27. This level serves as a key marker: holding below it leans bearish, with immediate support seen at $67.32, followed by $66.92 and $66.42.

If the price breaks above $68.27, however, we might see a shift to a more bullish outlook, with resistance levels at $68.80, $69.50, and $70.22.

The 50-day EMA at $68.35 and the 200-day EMA at $69.53 suggest some room for upside if momentum picks up.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

UKOIL is trading at $71.77, down slightly by 0.21%, just below its critical pivot point of $68.27. This level is pivotal: staying below it supports a bearish outlook, with immediate support at $67.38 and additional safety nets at $66.92 and $66.42.

Should the price push above $68.27, however, we might see a more bullish tone unfold, with key resistance levels at $68.80, $69.32, and $69.95.

The 50-day EMA at $68.35 and the 200-day EMA at $69.53 further indicate that $68.27 is a threshold to watch closely for any shift in sentiment.