Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: EIA Cuts Demand Outlook Amid Weak Industrial Growth

Market Overview

Oil prices stabilized in Asian markets as traders balanced geopolitical risks with bearish demand expectations. Despite a drop in the previous session due to potential ceasefire talks, uncertainty lingers over possible escalations affecting key oil infrastructure in the Middle East.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration also cut its 2024 global oil demand forecast, citing weak industrial growth in the U.S. and China.

Natural gas and oil markets remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, potentially disrupting supply chains and influencing price volatility, which could lead to more cautious forecasts for energy commodities in the near term.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) prices have inched slightly higher, currently trading at $2.92, marking a modest increase of 0.03%. This movement reflects a short-term consolidation phase.

The 4-hour chart reveals that prices are gravitating around the $2.69 pivot point, which has been a key support level in recent sessions.

For an upward trajectory, prices must breach the first resistance at $2.75, with subsequent resistance zones at $2.78 and $2.83. Conversely, immediate support stands at $2.65, with additional safety nets at $2.61 and $2.58.

Technical indicators show that the 50-day EMA is at $2.80, while the 200-day EMA aligns with the pivot point at $2.69. A bullish outlook remains as long as prices sustain above $2.69. A break below could trigger accelerated selling pressure.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

Crude oil (USOIL) prices have edged up to $74.06, a minor gain of 0.29%, reflecting a steady upward momentum. The 4-hour chart indicates the $73.49 pivot point as a critical support level, providing a solid base for the recent climb.

The next major hurdle lies at $74.62, with further resistance at $75.84 and $77.40. Immediate support is anchored at $72.65, followed by deeper support at $71.58 and $70.53. The 50-day EMA currently stands at $74.00, reinforcing near-term bullish sentiment, while the 200-day EMA at $71.73 suggests a broader uptrend.

As long as prices stay above the $73.49 pivot, the outlook remains positive, but any dip below this level could trigger a sharp downward correction.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent oil (UKOIL) prices are currently trading at $77.73, up 0.39%, indicating a stable short-term uptrend. The 4-hour chart shows the $77.13 pivot point as a crucial support, which has held firmly amid recent volatility.

Immediate resistance is positioned at $78.18, with subsequent resistance levels at $79.19 and $80.57, suggesting a clear path for further gains if momentum persists. On the downside, support is noted at $76.33, with additional layers of support at $75.25 and $74.34.

Technical indicators reveal that the 50-day EMA is holding at $77.58, underlining a near-term bullish bias, while the 200-day EMA at $75.27 supports a longer-term positive outlook. Remaining above $77.13 keeps the bullish momentum intact, but a dip below could invite swift selling pressure.