Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Geopolitical Risks Drive Volatility in Prices—Is More Upside Ahead?

Market Overview

Oil prices remained steady on Friday but are set to close the week with nearly 8% gains as investors weigh the impact of rising geopolitical tensions on global supply. Concerns over potential disruptions in the Middle East have reduced bearish bets on oil.

Although there’s no immediate supply cut, uncertainty keeps the market on edge. Analysts suggest that OPEC’s spare capacity and ample global supply could limit the impact of these tensions.

Meanwhile, Libya’s reopening of oilfields provides further stability. These developments support a cautiously bullish outlook for oil and natural gas prices, as traders remain wary of future supply risks.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is trading at $2.961, down 0.10% for the session, and sitting slightly above its pivot point of $2.95. Immediate resistance is at $2.98, followed by $3.00 and $3.02, which are key levels to watch. If prices break above $2.97, it could push the commodity toward the $3.00 mark.

On the downside, support is noted at $2.93, with further levels at $2.91 and $2.89 providing a safety net against further declines. The 50-day EMA at $2.94 serves as short-term support, while the 200-day EMA at $2.79 indicates a solid long-term base.

A triple-top pattern near $2.97 extends resistance, suggesting that a breakout above this level is crucial for bullish momentum to continue.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is trading at $73.63, almost flat for the day, and hovering just above its pivot point of $73.23. Immediate resistance is seen at $74.08, with further levels at $74.85 and $75.53.

On the downside, support stands at $72.29, followed by $71.89 and $71.27, which could act as cushions if selling pressure builds. The 50-day EMA at $71.90 suggests a bullish trend in the short term, while the 200-day EMA at $70.31 confirms longer-term support.

However, the RSI indicates USOIL is in overbought territory, hinting at a potential short-term pullback. A break below $73.23 could lead to further downside, but if prices surpass $74.10, expect renewed bullish momentum.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL) is trading at $77.50, down 0.42% for the session, and hovering above its pivot point at $77.09. The immediate resistance is $77.97, followed by $78.50 and $79.04, which could trigger more buying if breached.

On the downside, support lies at $76.60, with additional support at $76.15 and $75.73. The 50-day EMA at $75.56 suggests the commodity is still in a short-term uptrend, while the 200-day EMA at $73.88 indicates a solid long-term base.

However, the RSI shows UKOIL is approaching overbought conditions, suggesting the potential for a short-term pullback. If the price drops below $77.09, it could trigger a bearish move, while a break above $78 could reignite bullish momentum.