Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Geopolitical Tensions and OPEC+ Cuts Shape Market

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Updated: Mar 4, 2024, 11:12 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

OPEC+'s production cuts aim to stabilize global oil supply amidst fluctuating demand.
Geopolitical tensions, including the Israel-Hamas conflict, may impact oil price volatility.
Economic policies and interest rate speculations contribute to the complex oil market dynamics.

Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Geopolitical Tensions and OPEC+ Cuts Shape Market

Global Oil Dynamics: Navigating Supply Cuts and Geopolitical Tensions

In Asian trading on Monday, Crude Oil prices experienced a modest increase, sustained by OPEC+’s decision to continue its production cuts through the second quarter. However, the upward trend was tempered by U.S. calls for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

Despite this, the oil market has enjoyed significant gains in the past two weeks, driven by the anticipation of tighter supplies and the prospect of a decline in U.S. interest rates.

The OPEC+ commitment to maintain a reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day in supply until June suggests a tighter global oil supply. However, concerns over weakening demand and high U.S. production could offset these supply constraints.

This mixed outlook could influence the daily forecasts for commodities like Natural Gas and Oil, as geopolitical tensions and economic policies affect market sentiment.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

NG Price Chart

Natural Gas (NG) witnessed a significant uptick, registering a 3.49% increase to $1.9290, reflecting market optimism. Despite this rally, NG trades below the pivotal $1.9399, suggesting cautious sentiment among traders.

Key resistance levels at $1.9871, $2.0470, and $2.1164 mark potential hurdles for further gains, while support at $1.8604, followed by $1.8016 and $1.7257, offers a safety net against declines.

The 50-Day and 200-Day EMAs, at $1.8311 and $1.9920 respectively, highlight a mixed outlook. With NG currently bearish below $1.9399, surpassing this threshold could signal a shift towards a bullish trend.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

Crude Oil (USOIL) marginally decreased by 0.17%, settling at $79.89. Currently hovering above its pivot point at $79.29, it exhibits a tentative bullish stance. Resistance levels at $80.36, $81.06, and $81.80 delineate potential barriers for upward movement.

Conversely, support positions at $78.06, $77.14, and $76.25 offer fallback points in case of a price pullback. The 50-Day and 200-Day Exponential Moving Averages, at $78.26 and $76.50 respectively, underscore a bullish trend.

Therefore, USOIL’s market outlook remains optimistic above the $79.29 mark, hinting at a continued upward trajectory barring any significant market shifts.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

UKOIL Price Chart

Brent Oil (UKOIL) experienced a slight decline of 0.31%, trading at $83.58. Positioned above its pivot point at $83.02, UKOIL indicates a bullish outlook. Resistance levels at $83.94, $84.88, and $85.80 could challenge further gains.

Support levels at $81.70, $80.65, and $79.42 provide a safety net against potential drops. The 50-Day and 200-Day Exponential Moving Averages, at $82.47 and $81.30 respectively, underscore a positive momentum.

Thus, UKOIL’s market sentiment remains bullish above the $83 threshold, suggesting potential for continued upward movement.

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About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.