Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Geopolitical Tensions and U.S. Crude Stockpile Declines Impact Market Trends

Market Overview

Geopolitical tensions and evolving economic policies are driving volatility in natural gas and oil markets. Although oil prices rose slightly, they remain on track for a second consecutive annual decline, as weaker demand in key consuming nations tempers optimism.

China’s manufacturing growth, supported by a $411 billion stimulus plan, offers a glimmer of hope, yet long-term demand projections remain muted. OPEC and the IEA have cut 2025 demand forecasts, citing global supply surpassing demand.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude stockpile declines and expectations around Federal Reserve rate adjustments are adding short-term support but maintaining a complex outlook for energy markets.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) prices are trading at $3.70, down 2.33% in the latest session, reflecting bearish pressure. The pivot point at $3.80 serves as a critical threshold, with prices struggling to hold above it. Immediate support is found at $3.53, with deeper levels at $3.25. On the upside, resistance lies at $4.20, followed by a more challenging level at $4.50.

The 4-hour chart reveals an upward channel providing mild bullish support, though the recent dip tests this trend. The 50 EMA at $3.59 reinforces short-term support, while the 200 EMA at $3.20 indicates a broader uptrend.

RSI levels suggest consolidation, but a sustained break below $3.80 could trigger sharper declines, while a push above $4.20 might reignite bullish momentum.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

U.S. crude oil (USOIL) is trading at $71.65, up 0.79%, as buyers regain momentum following a triple-top breakout. The pivot point at $71.08 remains crucial, with prices holding comfortably above it, signaling bullish sentiment. Immediate resistance is at $72.12, followed by $72.84, which could act as a significant barrier to further gains. On the downside, support lies at $70.18 and $69.14, both pivotal in maintaining the uptrend.

The 4-hour chart shows prices above the 50 EMA ($70.45) and the 200 EMA ($69.79), underscoring short-term and medium-term strength. The breakout from a triple-top pattern suggests room for further upward movement, though traders should monitor $71 closely as a break below this level could shift momentum.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude (UKOIL) is trading at $74.63, up 0.77%, signaling renewed bullish momentum as prices hold above the pivot point at $74.47. Immediate resistance lies at $75.32, with the next target at $76.03, offering room for further upside if buyers sustain their momentum. On the downside, support is noted at $73.74, with stronger protection at $72.96, both critical levels to watch in case of a pullback.

The 4-hour chart highlights prices trading above both the 50 EMA ($73.66) and the 200 EMA ($73.22), reinforcing a bullish outlook. However, maintaining support above $74.47 is essential to avoid a potential shift in sentiment. A breakout above $75.32 could drive prices toward higher resistance zones.