Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Geopolitical Tensions vs. China Demand In Play

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Published: Mar 11, 2024, 05:46 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

China's sluggish demand pressures oil prices despite OPEC+'s cuts; geopolitical risks may mitigate losses.
OPEC+'s extended production cuts could tighten the market, countering mixed reactions to U.S. jobs data and China's growth target.
Escalating tensions in the Middle East and Russia heighten uncertainties, potentially impacting global energy supplies and forecasts.

Impact on Energy Markets: China’s Demand and Geopolitical Tensions

Oil prices are facing downward pressure due to concerns over China’s sluggish demand, despite OPEC+’s continued supply cuts. The situation is somewhat offset by geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Russia, which could limit losses.

Mixed reactions to U.S. job data and China’s ambitious 5% growth target for 2024 also play roles in market sentiment. However, OPEC+’s decision to extend production cuts into the second quarter might tighten the market.

Meanwhile, escalating tensions in the Middle East and around Russia contribute to uncertainties that could affect global energy supplies, influencing both Natural Gas and Oil forecasts.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

NG Price Chart

Natural Gas (NG)‘s market dynamics show a significant upturn, with prices ascending by 1.77% to $1.8960, as charted on a 4-hour timeframe. The current pivot stands at $1.8494, delineating critical market movements.

Resistance levels are observed at $1.9173, $1.9790, and $2.0570, suggesting potential ceilings for price advancements. Conversely, support levels at $1.7856, $1.7257, and $1.6772 mark thresholds where buying interest may rejuvenate.

Technical indicators, including a 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.8996 and a 200-Day EMA at $1.9786, hint at nuanced market sentiments. The near-term breach above $1.9175 could trigger a sell-off, underlining a tactical pivot for traders. Despite this, Natural Gas remains fundamentally bullish above $1.8494.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

In today’s USOIL technical analysis, the commodity is trading lower at $77.40, marking a 0.49% decrease within the 4-hour chart frame. The pivot point, established at $77.99, serves as a reference for the day’s trading sentiment.

Resistance is found at $79.94, followed by $80.67 and $81.65, delineating potential upward barriers. Support levels are positioned at $76.61, $75.64, and further down at $74.42, which could offer buying opportunities on dips.

Technical indicators reveal a 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $78.53, suggesting a slight bearish momentum against the 200-Day EMA at $77.07. The current market stance below the pivot indicates a bearish outlook, with a shift above $77.99 possibly altering the trend to a more bullish inclination.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

UKOIL Price Chart

Today’s technical outlook for UKOIL indicates a minor decline of 0.39%, with the price settling at $81.50. This observation comes from the 4-hour chart timeframe. The established pivot point at $81.86 suggests a tentative balance between buyers and sellers. Resistance levels are identified at $82.82, $83.47, and $84.29, marking potential hurdles for upward price movements. Conversely, immediate support is found at $80.99, with further cushions at $80.25 and $79.32, which could arrest any downward trends.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $82.55 and the 200-Day EMA at $81.65 provide mixed signals, with a slight bearish bias given the current price’s position below the pivot. The market’s sentiment is bearish below $81.86, implying that a push above this mark could pivot towards a bullish outlook.

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About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.