Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Gulf of Mexico Supply Issues Fuel Volatile Price Action

Market Overview

Oil prices rose in Asian markets amid expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut, despite weaker data from China and ongoing demand concerns. While crude production in the Gulf of Mexico resumed after Hurricane Francine, nearly 20% of oil and 28% of natural gas output remain offline.

Markets are cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, with expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate cut. Lower interest rates could stimulate economic growth and increase demand for oil and gas, but supply disruptions continue to affect forecasts.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is trading at $2.271, down slightly by 0.04%. The price is hovering just below the key pivot point of $2.29, keeping the bearish sentiment intact for now.

The 50-day EMA at $2.25 is acting as immediate resistance, while further resistance levels at $2.35 and $2.40 loom ahead if bulls manage to break through.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $2.23, with deeper levels at $2.18 and $2.12 if selling pressure intensifies. Watch the $2.29 level carefully—a break above could spark a shift toward a more bullish tone while staying below this level suggests further downside risk.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is trading at $68.68, down 0.78% on the day, showing signs of weakness as it hovers below the pivot point at $69.48. The 50-day EMA sits at $69.23, acting as immediate resistance. A break above $69.50 could change the momentum, pushing prices toward the next resistance at $70.73.

However, the overall outlook remains bearish as long as prices stay below the pivot. Immediate support lies at $67.81, with further downside possible toward $66.56 if selling continues.

Keep an eye on the $69.50 level—it’s a key hurdle for any bullish recovery, while breaking below support could deepen losses.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL) is trading at $71.55, down 0.08% as prices remain under pressure below the key pivot point at $72.14. The 50-day EMA at $72.47 is adding resistance, making it tough for bulls to gain ground.

A break above $72.15 could spark a move toward the next resistance at $73.44, but the overall trend remains bearish for now.

Immediate support is at $70.41, and a drop below this level could lead to further declines, potentially targeting $68.65. Keep an eye on the $72.15 pivot—breaking above could flip sentiment, but the downside risk is present as long as prices stay below that mark.