Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Hurricane Disruptions Support Prices, Bearish Trendlines Loom

Market Overview

Oil prices rose on Tuesday as the market focused on U.S. production disruptions caused by Hurricane Francine, which knocked 12% of crude and 16% of natural gas output in the Gulf of Mexico offline.

Concerns over lower U.S. crude inventories and expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut further bolstered prices. However, weak demand growth in China, the world’s largest crude importer, has limited gains.

China’s refinery output dropped for the fifth consecutive month, adding caution to the market. Lower interest rates could support economic growth, potentially lifting oil and natural gas demand.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is trading at $2.391, up a slight 0.08%, showing some resilience above its pivot point at $2.34. Immediate resistance lies just ahead at $2.41, and a move above this could open the door for a climb toward $2.48 and $2.55.

The 50-day EMA at $2.27 is providing solid support, keeping the trend mildly bullish for now. However, a break below $2.34 could shift sentiment quickly, triggering a sharper decline toward $2.27 and possibly down to $2.21, where the 200-day EMA offers additional support.

As long as prices stay above $2.34, the trend remains cautiously bullish. But watch for downside risks if this level fails to hold.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is trading at $69.40, down 1.52%, as it continues to hover below key resistance at $70.58. The 50-day EMA is exactly at the current price of $69.40, offering a short-term balance point, but the downward trendline extending from previous highs is creating strong resistance near $70.58.

Until prices break above this level, the outlook remains bearish. Immediate support lies at $68.45, with further downside to $67.17 if selling pressure persists.

On the upside, breaking through $72 and $72.95 would shift momentum back in favor of the bulls, but for now, the technical picture favors further weakness unless $70.58 can be cleared. Bearish bias below $70.58, but a break above could spark renewed buying.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL) is trading at $73.09, up a modest 0.12%, but faces a key technical hurdle at $73.31, the pivot point. This level is reinforced by a potential triple-top pattern, which has been acting as strong resistance.

The 50-day EMA at $72.55 is providing some support, but until prices break decisively above $73.31, upward momentum may be limited. Immediate resistance stands at $74.80, followed by $76.23, where the 200-day EMA resides.

On the downside, support lies at $71.64, with the next key level at $70.37. The trend is cautiously bullish above $73.31, but failure to break this level could trigger a selloff, especially if support at $71.64 is tested.